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Forecasting of Remotely Sensed Daily Evapotranspiration Data Over Nile Delta Region, Egypt

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  • Aris Psilovikos
  • Mohamed Elhag

Abstract

Daily evapotranspiration is a major component in crops water consumption management plans. Consequently, forecasting of daily evapotranspiration is the keystone of any effective water resources management plans in fragile environment similar to the Nile Delta region. The estimation of daily evapotranspiration was carried out using Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), while the forecasting of the daily evapotranspiration was carried out using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and its derivative Seasonal ARIMA. Remote sensing data were downloaded from European Space Agency (ESA) and used to estimate daily evapotranspiration values. Remote sensing data collected from August 2005 till December 2009 on a monthly basis for daily evapotranspiration estimation. The application of the most adequate ARIMA (2,1,2) to the evapotranspiration data set failed to sustain the forecasting accuracy over a long period of time. Although, time series analysis of daily evapotranspiration data set showed a seasonality behavior and thus, using seasonal ARIMA [(2,1,2) (1,1,2)6] was the optimum to forecast the daily evapotranspiration over the study area and sustain the forecasting accuracy. A linear regression model was established to test the correlation between the forecasted daily evapotranspiration values using S-ARIMA model and the actual values. The forecasting model indicates an increase of the daily evapotranspiration values with about 1.3 mm per day. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Aris Psilovikos & Mohamed Elhag, 2013. "Forecasting of Remotely Sensed Daily Evapotranspiration Data Over Nile Delta Region, Egypt," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4115-4130, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:12:p:4115-4130
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0368-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Mohamed Elhag & Aris Psilovikos & Maria Sakellariou-Makrantonaki, 2013. "Land use changes and its impacts on water resources in Nile Delta region using remote sensing techniques," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 1189-1204, October.
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    1. Mohamed Elhag & Ioannis Gitas & Anas Othman & Jarbou Bahrawi & Aris Psilovikos & Nassir Al-Amri, 2021. "Time series analysis of remotely sensed water quality parameters in arid environments, Saudi Arabia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1392-1410, February.

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