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Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface

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  • Marcela Brugnach
  • Andrew Tagg
  • Florian Keil
  • Wim Lange

Abstract

The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However, despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Marcela Brugnach & Andrew Tagg & Florian Keil & Wim Lange, 2007. "Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(7), pages 1075-1090, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:21:y:2007:i:7:p:1075-1090
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-006-9099-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giupponi, C & Mysiak, J & Fassio, A & Cogan, V, 2004. "MULINO-DSS: a computer tool for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 13-24.
    2. Zimmermann, H. -J., 2000. "An application-oriented view of modeling uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 190-198, April.
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    1. Maisa’a Shammout & Muhammad Shatanawi & Sawsan Naber, 2013. "Participatory Optimization Scenario for Water Resources Management: A Case from Jordan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 1949-1962, May.
    2. Scheer, Dirk, 2017. "Communicating energy system modelling to the wider public: An analysis of German media coverage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1389-1398.
    3. Xin He & Simon Stisen & Marianne B. Wiese & Hans Jørgen Henriksen, 2016. "Designing a Hydrological Real-Time System for Surface Water and Groundwater in Denmark with Engagement of Stakeholders," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1785-1802, March.
    4. Hagen Koch & Uwe Grünewald, 2009. "A Comparison of Modelling Systems for the Development and Revision of Water Resources Management Plans," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(7), pages 1403-1422, May.
    5. Baustert, Paul & Othoniel, Benoit & Rugani, Benedetto & Leopold, Ulrich, 2018. "Uncertainty analysis in integrated environmental models for ecosystem service assessments: Frameworks, challenges and gaps," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 33(PB), pages 110-123.
    6. Hans Henriksen & Jens Refsgaard & Anker Højberg & Nils Ferrand & Peter Gijsbers & Huub Scholten, 2009. "Harmonised Principles for Public Participation in Quality Assurance of Integrated Water Resources Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(12), pages 2539-2554, September.
    7. Roland Barthel & Stefan Banzhaf, 2016. "Groundwater and Surface Water Interaction at the Regional-scale – A Review with Focus on Regional Integrated Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 1-32, January.
    8. Deviatkin, Ivan & Kozlova, Mariia & Yeomans, Julian Scott, 2021. "Simulation decomposition for environmental sustainability: Enhanced decision-making in carbon footprint analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Johannes G. Leskens & Christian Kehl & Tim Tutenel & Timothy Kol & Gerwin de Haan & Guus Stelling & Elmar Eisemann, 2017. "An interactive simulation and visualization tool for flood analysis usable for practitioners," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 307-324, February.
    10. Nicola Isendahl & Art Dewulf & Marcela Brugnach & Greet François & Sabine Möllenkamp & Claudia Pahl-Wostl, 2009. "Assessing Framing of Uncertainties in Water Management Practice," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(15), pages 3191-3205, December.
    11. Xin He & Simon Stisen & Marianne Wiese & Hans Henriksen, 2016. "Designing a Hydrological Real-Time System for Surface Water and Groundwater in Denmark with Engagement of Stakeholders," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1785-1802, March.
    12. Roland Barthel & Stefan Banzhaf, 2016. "Groundwater and Surface Water Interaction at the Regional-scale – A Review with Focus on Regional Integrated Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 1-32, January.

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