IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v6y2004i2p169-188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probability, possibility and evidence: approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forestry decision analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kangas, Annika S.
  • Kangas, Jyrki

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Kangas, Annika S. & Kangas, Jyrki, 2004. "Probability, possibility and evidence: approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forestry decision analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 169-188, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:6:y:2004:i:2:p:169-188
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389-9341(02)00083-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. E. Bellman & L. A. Zadeh, 1970. "Decision-Making in a Fuzzy Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 141-164, December.
    2. Mendoza, Guillermo A. & Bruce Bare, B. & Zhou, Zehai, 1993. "A fuzzy multiple objective linear programming approach to forest planning under uncertainty," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 257-274.
    3. Lahdelma, Risto & Hokkanen, Joonas & Salminen, Pekka, 1998. "SMAA - Stochastic multiobjective acceptability analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 137-143, April.
    4. Goumas, M. & Lygerou, V., 2000. "An extension of the PROMETHEE method for decision making in fuzzy environment: Ranking of alternative energy exploitation projects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 606-613, June.
    5. Basak, Indrani, 1998. "Probabilistic judgments specified partially in the analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 153-164, July.
    6. D. Ríos Insua & E. Gallego & A. Mateos & S. Ríos-Insua, 2000. "MOIRA: A decision support system for decision making on aquatic ecosystems contaminated by radioactive fallout," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 95(1), pages 341-364, January.
    7. Dubois, Didier & Prade, Henri & Sabbadin, Regis, 2001. "Decision-theoretic foundations of qualitative possibility theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 459-478, February.
    8. David E. Bell, 1982. "Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 961-981, October.
    9. Zimmermann, H. -J., 2000. "An application-oriented view of modeling uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 190-198, April.
    10. Yang, Jian-Bo, 2001. "Rule and utility based evidential reasoning approach for multiattribute decision analysis under uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 31-61, May.
    11. Klemmer, Paul, 1986. "Die Kontroverse um die Daimler-Benz-Beihilfe," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 66(11), pages 550-554.
    12. Ells, A. & Bulte, E.H. & van Kooten, G.C., 1997. "Uncertainty and forest land use in British Columbia : Vague preferences and imprecise coefficients," Other publications TiSEM 7ec50f74-1a54-4827-9a2e-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Krcmar, Emina & Stennes, Brad & Cornelis van Kooten, G. & Vertinsky, Ilan, 2001. "Carbon sequestration and land management under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 616-629, December.
    14. Ells, A & Bulte, E & van Kooten, G-C., 1995. "Uncertainty and Forest Land Use Allocation in British Columbia : Vague Priorities and Imprecise Coefficients," Mansholt Working Papers 1995-04, Wageningen University, Mansholt Graduate School of Social Sciences.
    15. Risto Lahdelma & Pekka Salminen, 2001. "SMAA-2: Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for Group Decision Making," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(3), pages 444-454, June.
    16. Hiroyuki Itami, 1974. "Expected Objective Value of a Stochastic Linear Program and the Degree of Uncertainty of Parameters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 291-301, November.
    17. Arbel, Ami, 1989. "Approximate articulation of preference and priority derivation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 317-326, December.
    18. Montgomery, Claire A., 1996. "Risk and forest policy: Issues and recent trends in the U.S," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-72, January.
    19. Miettinen, Kaisa & Salminen, Pekka, 1999. "Decision-aid for discrete multiple criteria decision making problems with imprecise data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 50-60, November.
    20. David E. Bell, 1985. "Disappointment in Decision Making Under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-27, February.
    21. Ahti A. Salo & Raimo P. Hämäläinen, 1992. "Preference Assessment by Imprecise Ratio Statements," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(6), pages 1053-1061, December.
    22. Juha M. Alho & Jyrki Kangas & Osmo Kolehmainen, 1996. "Uncertainty in Expert Predictions of the Ecological Consequences of Forest Plans," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 45(1), pages 1-14, March.
    23. Beynon, Malcolm & Curry, Bruce & Morgan, Peter, 2000. "The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence: an alternative approach to multicriteria decision modelling," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 37-50, February.
    24. D'Avignon, G. R. & Vincke, Ph., 1988. "An outranking method under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 311-321, September.
    25. Rakesh Kumar Sarin, 1982. "Strength of Preference and Risky Choice," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 982-997, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grippo, Valeria & Vastola, Antonella, 2018. "Evaluation Of Bran Use Through Multi Criteria Analysis," 2018 Seventh AIEAA Conference, June 14-15, Conegliano, Italy 275646, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    2. Ficko, Andrej & Boncina, Andrej, 2013. "Probabilistic typology of management decision making in private forest properties," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 34-43.
    3. Eliaza Mkuna & Lloyd Baiyegunhi & Wiktor Adamus, 2020. "Sustainable livelihood alternatives among Nile perch (Lates niloticus) fishers in Lake Victoria Tanzania: analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Mosayeb Dashtpeyma & Reza Ghodsi, 2021. "Forest Biomass and Bioenergy Supply Chain Resilience: A Systematic Literature Review on the Barriers and Enablers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Kheiry Hassan M. Ishag, 2016. "Dates Palm Replanting Sustainable Strategies and Risk Aversion in Oman," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 146-146, November.
    6. Salles, Thiago Taglialegna & Nogueira, Denismar Alves & Beijo, Luiz Alberto & Silva, Liniker Fernandes da, 2019. "Bayesian approach and extreme value theory in economic analysis of forestry projects," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 64-71.
    7. Dragoi, Marian & Popa, Bogdan & Blujdea, Viorel, 2011. "Improving communication among stakeholders through ex-post transactional analysis -- case study on Romanian forestry," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 16-23, January.
    8. Lien, G. & Stordal, S. & Hardaker, J.B. & Asheim, L.J., 2007. "Risk aversion and optimal forest replanting: A stochastic efficiency study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1584-1592, September.
    9. Hörl, Jakob & Keller, Klaus & Yousefpour, Rasoul, 2020. "Reviewing the performance of adaptive forest management strategies with robustness analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Corral, Serafin & Hernandez, Yeray, 2017. "Social Sensitivity Analyses Applied to Environmental Assessment Processes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1-10.
    11. Henk Broekhuizen & Catharina Groothuis-Oudshoorn & Janine Til & J. Hummel & Maarten IJzerman, 2015. "A Review and Classification of Approaches for Dealing with Uncertainty in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Healthcare Decisions," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 445-455, May.
    12. Leonie Netter & Eike Luedeling & Cory Whitney, 2022. "Agroforestry and reforestation with the Gold Standard-Decision Analysis of a voluntary carbon offset label," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 1-26, February.
    13. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    14. Shabani, Nazanin & Akhtari, Shaghaygh & Sowlati, Taraneh, 2013. "Value chain optimization of forest biomass for bioenergy production: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 299-311.
    15. Kijazi, Martin Herbert & Kant, Shashi, 2011. "Social acceptability of alternative forest regimes in Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, using stakeholder attitudes as metrics of uncertainty," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 242-257, April.
    16. Petr, Michal & Boerboom, Luc & Ray, Duncan & van der Veen, Anne, 2014. "An uncertainty assessment framework for forest planning adaptation to climate change," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-11.
    17. Jordi Vallverdú, 2008. "The False Dilemma: Bayesian vs. Frequentist," E-LOGOS, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(1).
    18. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L. & Sallaberry, C.J., 2006. "Sensitivity analysis in conjunction with evidence theory representations of epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1414-1434.
    19. Liu, Shuang & Proctor, Wendy & Cook, David, 2010. "Using an integrated fuzzy set and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation approach to facilitate decision-making in invasive species management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2374-2382, October.
    20. Álvarez-Miranda, Eduardo & Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi & Pais, Cristobal & Weintraub, Andrés, 2019. "A multicriteria stochastic optimization framework for sustainable forest decision making under uncertainty," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 112-122.
    21. Scholten, Lisa & Schuwirth, Nele & Reichert, Peter & Lienert, Judit, 2015. "Tackling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis – An application to water supply infrastructure planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 243-260.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kijazi, Martin Herbert & Kant, Shashi, 2011. "Social acceptability of alternative forest regimes in Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, using stakeholder attitudes as metrics of uncertainty," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 242-257, April.
    2. Wulf, David & Bertsch, Valentin, 2016. "A natural language generation approach to support understanding and traceability of multi-dimensional preferential sensitivity analysis in multi-criteria decision making," MPRA Paper 75025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kangas, Annika S. & Kangas, Jyrki & Lahdelma, Risto & Salminen, Pekka, 2006. "Using SMAA-2 method with dependent uncertainties for strategic forest planning," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 113-125, November.
    4. Kreye, M.E. & Goh, Y.M. & Newnes, L.B. & Goodwin, P., 2012. "Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 682-692.
    5. Jessop, Alan, 2014. "IMP: A decision aid for multiattribute evaluation using imprecise weight estimates," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-29.
    6. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Liu, Yang & Feng, Bo, 2010. "A method for stochastic multiple criteria decision making based on pairwise comparisons of alternatives with random evaluations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 906-915, December.
    7. Jiang, Yanping & Liang, Xia & Liang, Haiming & Yang, Ningman, 2018. "Multiple criteria decision making with interval stochastic variables: A method based on interval stochastic dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 632-643.
    8. Dias, Luis C. & Climaco, Joao N., 2005. "Dealing with imprecise information in group multicriteria decisions: a methodology and a GDSS architecture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 291-307, January.
    9. Mikhailov, L., 2004. "A fuzzy approach to deriving priorities from interval pairwise comparison judgements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 687-704, December.
    10. García Cáceres, Rafael Guillermo & Aráoz Durand, Julián Arturo & Gómez, Fernando Palacios, 2009. "Integral analysis method - IAM," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(3), pages 891-903, February.
    11. Li-zhu Yue & Jia-wei Zhang & Yue Lv, 2024. "Pyramid-Shaped Indicators: Evaluating the Robustness of Scheme Comparisons Under Weight Uncertainty," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 174(2), pages 631-656, September.
    12. Guo, Min & Yang, Jian-Bo & Chin, Kwai-Sang & Wang, Hongwei, 2007. "Evidential reasoning based preference programming for multiple attribute decision analysis under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 1294-1312, November.
    13. Tom Pape, 2020. "Value of agreement in decision analysis: Concept, measures and application," Papers 2012.13816, arXiv.org.
    14. Xu, Dong-Ling & Yang, Jian-Bo & Wang, Ying-Ming, 2006. "The evidential reasoning approach for multi-attribute decision analysis under interval uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(3), pages 1914-1943, November.
    15. Pape, Tom, 2017. "Value of agreement in decision analysis: concept, measures and application," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68682, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Wang, Ying-Ming & Yang, Jian-Bo & Xu, Dong-Ling, 2006. "Environmental impact assessment using the evidential reasoning approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(3), pages 1885-1913, November.
    17. Lahdelma, Risto & Miettinen, Kaisa & Salminen, Pekka, 2003. "Ordinal criteria in stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA)," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 117-127, May.
    18. George Wu, 1999. "Anxiety and Decision Making with Delayed Resolution of Uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 159-199, April.
    19. Cinelli, Marco & Kadziński, Miłosz & Miebs, Grzegorz & Gonzalez, Michael & Słowiński, Roman, 2022. "Recommending multiple criteria decision analysis methods with a new taxonomy-based decision support system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 633-651.
    20. Kajanus, Miika & Leskinen, Pekka & Kurttila, Mikko & Kangas, Jyrki, 2012. "Making use of MCDS methods in SWOT analysis—Lessons learnt in strategic natural resources management," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-9.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:6:y:2004:i:2:p:169-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.