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Assessment of uncertainties in expert knowledge, illustrated in fuzzy rule-based models

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  • Janssen, J.A.E.B.
  • Krol, M.S.
  • Schielen, R.M.J.
  • Hoekstra, A.Y.
  • de Kok, J.-L.

Abstract

The coherence between different aspects in the environmental system leads to a demand for comprehensive models of this system to explore the effects of different management alternatives. Fuzzy logic has been suggested as a means to extend the application domain of environmental modelling from physical relations to expert knowledge. In such applications the expert describes the system in terms of fuzzy variables and inference rules. The result of the fuzzy reasoning process is a numerical output value. In such a model, as in any other, the model context, structure, technical aspects, parameters and inputs may contribute uncertainties to the model output. Analysis of these contributions in a simplified model for agriculture suitability shows how important information about the accuracy of the expert knowledge in relation to the other uncertainties can be provided. A method for the extensive assessment of uncertainties in compositional fuzzy rule-based models is proposed, combining the evaluation of model structure, input and parameter uncertainties. In an example model, each of these three appear to have the potential to dominate aggregated uncertainty, supporting the relevance of an ample uncertainty approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Janssen, J.A.E.B. & Krol, M.S. & Schielen, R.M.J. & Hoekstra, A.Y. & de Kok, J.-L., 2010. "Assessment of uncertainties in expert knowledge, illustrated in fuzzy rule-based models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(9), pages 1245-1251.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:9:p:1245-1251
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.01.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rocchini, Duccio & Ricotta, Carlo, 2007. "Are landscapes as crisp as we may think?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 535-539.
    2. Zimmermann, H. -J., 2000. "An application-oriented view of modeling uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 190-198, April.
    3. Ascough, J.C. & Maier, H.R. & Ravalico, J.K. & Strudley, M.W., 2008. "Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 383-399.
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    2. Zahra Ebrahimi Gatgash & Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi, 2023. "Prioritization-based management of the watershed using health assessment analysis at sub-watershed scale," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 9673-9702, September.

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