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The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership

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  • Federico Fioravanti

    (Instituto de Matemática de Bahía Blanca, CONICET - UNS
    Universidad Nacional del Sur)

  • Fernando Delbianco

    (Instituto de Matemática de Bahía Blanca, CONICET - UNS
    Universidad Nacional del Sur)

  • Fernando Tohmé

    (Instituto de Matemática de Bahía Blanca, CONICET - UNS
    Universidad Nacional del Sur)

Abstract

Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the motivation of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, effort (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Fioravanti & Fernando Delbianco & Fernando Tohmé, 2023. "The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(3), pages 715-731, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:32:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s10260-022-00677-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-022-00677-8
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