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Forecasting Mortality for Kazakhstan Using the Lee Carter Model

Author

Listed:
  • Akzharkyn KNYKOVA

    (Al Farabi Kazakh National University Almaty Kazakhstan)

  • Azat SAPIN

    (JSC Subsidiary of Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan Life Insurance Company Halyk Life Kazakhstan)

Abstract

The Lee Carter Model is one of the most popular methodologies for forecasting mortality rates The model has been used very successfully in the U S and several other countries The purpose of this paper is to develop general and sex specific mortality forecasting model using historical mortality data for Kazakhstan from 1999 to 2015 based on the statistical time series techniques attributed to Lee and Carter 1992 The Singular Value Decomposition SVD is used to estimate the model s parameters and the autoregressive moving average ARIMA is used to forecast general and sex specific mortality rates for the time period from 2016 to 2021 Also forecasted values of life expectancy are obtained for both males and females using forecasts of mortality rates

Suggested Citation

  • Akzharkyn KNYKOVA & Azat SAPIN, 2017. "Forecasting Mortality for Kazakhstan Using the Lee Carter Model," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(6), pages 1798-1811.
    • Handle: RePEc:srs:jarle0:v:8:y:2017:i:6:p:1798-1811
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    Cited by:

    1. I. A. Lakman & R. A. Askarov & V. B. Prudnikov & Z. F. Askarova & V. M. Timiryanova, 2021. "Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 536-548, September.

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