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Institutional Factors in Economic Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • A. A. Blokhin

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • R. V. Gridin

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The article assesses the possibilities of including institutional factors in macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts. It has been substantiated that a number of institutional features associated with the concentration of business in sectors of the economy and its consolidation around the leading group of companies in the market may reflect qualitative changes in the architecture of markets, the strengthening of explicit or implicit dominance, the formation of institutional barriers and traps. At the same time, the outstripping growth of large business significantly affects the industry dynamics and structural shifts, but is not synchronized across industries and is uneven in time. An approach is proposed for comparing the processes of business consolidation in the sectors of the Russian consumer market. Quantitative calculations have been performed, confirming the hypothesis of the importance of institutional factors that enhance the influence of large business in industries on the dynamics of their indicators. An assumption is made about a qualitative change in the sensitivity of markets to government regulation measures, depending on the stability of their architecture.

Suggested Citation

  • A. A. Blokhin & R. V. Gridin, 2021. "Institutional Factors in Economic Forecasts," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 459-466, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:32:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700721050051
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721050051
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ducci,Francesco, 2020. "Natural Monopolies in Digital Platform Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108491143, September.
    2. Steve Wood, 2013. "Revisiting the US food retail consolidation wave: regulation, market power and spatial outcomes," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 299-326, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. A. A. Blokhin & M. V. Golovan’ & R. V. Gridin, 2023. "The Contribution of Large, Medium and Small Companies to Industry Dynamics," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 51-58, February.
    2. A.V. Govorova, 2023. "History and Paradoxes of the Chinese Car Market: Eastern Strategies and the Asian Regulator," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 150-158, February.

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