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Unemployment and Fertility: A Long Run Relationship

Author

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  • Jose Maria Fernandez-Crehuet

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics and NCID (ICS), Edificio Amigos
    Universidad Francisco de Vitoria)

  • Cristina Martí Barco

    (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid)

Abstract

The paper examines the relationship between the unemployment rate and the fertility rate in a number of European countries along with Japan and the US. We use fractional integration and cointegration techniques to establish this long run relationship. The analysis shed some light on the degree of persistence of the series, and on whether policy actions are required for highly persistent series. The evidence suggests that these two variables (unemployment and fertility rates) are not related in the long run. However, in the short run, assuming that unemployment rate is weakly exogenous, the coefficient relating the two variables is found to be negative in four countries: the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Maria Fernandez-Crehuet & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Cristina Martí Barco, 2020. "Unemployment and Fertility: A Long Run Relationship," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 1177-1196, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:152:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-020-02468-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-020-02468-8
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    2. Janetta Nestorová Dická & Filip Lipták, 2024. "Regional fertility predictors based on socioeconomic determinants in Slovakia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-43, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment rate; Fertility rate; Long memory; Fractional integration; Fractional cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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