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Population modeling of the emergence and development of scientific fields

Author

Listed:
  • Luís M. A. Bettencourt

    (Theoretical Division
    Santa Fe Institute)

  • David I. Kaiser

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Jasleen Kaur

    (Theoretical Division
    Indiana University)

  • Carlos Castillo-Chávez

    (Arizona State University)

  • David E. Wojick

    (Office of Scientific and Technical Information)

Abstract

We analyze the temporal evolution of emerging fields within several scientific disciplines in terms of numbers of authors and publications. From bibliographic searches we construct databases of authors, papers, and their dates of publication. We show that the temporal development of each field, while different in detail, is well described by population contagion models, suitably adapted from epidemiology to reflect the dynamics of scientific interaction. Dynamical parameters are estimated and discussed to reflect fundamental characteristics of the field, such as time of apprenticeship and recruitment rate. We also show that fields are characterized by simple scaling laws relating numbers of new publications to new authors, with exponents that reflect increasing or decreasing returns in scientific productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Luís M. A. Bettencourt & David I. Kaiser & Jasleen Kaur & Carlos Castillo-Chávez & David E. Wojick, 2008. "Population modeling of the emergence and development of scientific fields," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 75(3), pages 495-518, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:75:y:2008:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-007-1888-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-007-1888-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tibor Braun & Sándor Zsindely & Ildikó Dióspatonyi & Erika Zádor, 2007. "Gatekeeping patterns in nano-titled journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 70(3), pages 651-667, March.
    2. Kevin W. Boyack & Richard Klavans & Katy Börner, 2005. "Mapping the backbone of science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 64(3), pages 351-374, August.
    3. Bettencourt, Luís M.A. & Cintrón-Arias, Ariel & Kaiser, David I. & Castillo-Chávez, Carlos, 2006. "The power of a good idea: Quantitative modeling of the spread of ideas from epidemiological models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 513-536.
    4. Lynne G. Zucker & Michael R. Darby, 2005. "Socio-economic Impact of Nanoscale Science: Initial Results and NanoBank," NBER Working Papers 11181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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