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Predicting Scholars' Scientific Impact

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  • Amin Mazloumian

Abstract

We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of scientists. Our results show that i) among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii) future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately ( for a 1-year prediction, ) but iii) future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

Suggested Citation

  • Amin Mazloumian, 2012. "Predicting Scholars' Scientific Impact," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-5, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0049246
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacob, Brian A. & Lefgren, Lars, 2011. "The impact of research grant funding on scientific productivity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(9), pages 1168-1177.
    2. Amin Mazloumian & Young-Ho Eom & Dirk Helbing & Sergi Lozano & Santo Fortunato, 2011. "How Citation Boosts Promote Scientific Paradigm Shifts and Nobel Prizes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(5), pages 1-6, May.
    3. Leo Egghe, 2006. "Theory and practise of the g-index," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 69(1), pages 131-152, October.
    4. Kevin W. Boyack & Richard Klavans & Katy Börner, 2005. "Mapping the backbone of science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 64(3), pages 351-374, August.
    5. Peter Weingart, 2005. "Impact of bibliometrics upon the science system: Inadvertent consequences?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 62(1), pages 117-131, January.
    6. Lutz Bornmann & Hans‐Dieter Daniel, 2007. "What do we know about the h index?," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 58(9), pages 1381-1385, July.
    7. Lutz Bornmann & Hans-Dieter Daniel, 2005. "Selection of research fellowship recipients by committee peer review. Reliability, fairness and predictive validity of Board of Trustees' decisions," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 63(2), pages 297-320, April.
    8. Lutz Bornmann & Hans-Dieter Daniel, 2005. "Does the h-index for ranking of scientists really work?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 65(3), pages 391-392, December.
    9. Sune Lehmann & Andrew D. Jackson & Benny E. Lautrup, 2008. "A quantitative analysis of indicators of scientific performance," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 76(2), pages 369-390, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. João A G Moreira & Xiao Han T Zeng & Luís A Nunes Amaral, 2015. "The Distribution of the Asymptotic Number of Citations to Sets of Publications by a Researcher or from an Academic Department Are Consistent with a Discrete Lognormal Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Wanjun Xia & Tianrui Li & Chongshou Li, 2023. "A review of scientific impact prediction: tasks, features and methods," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(1), pages 543-585, January.
    3. Pablo Diniz Batista & Igor Marques-Carneiro & Leduc Hermeto de Almeida Fauth & Márcia de Oliveira Reis Brandão, 2018. "Web of Science: Showing a Bug Today That Can Mislead Scientific Research Output Prediction," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(1), pages 21582440187, February.
    4. Mike Thelwall, 2023. "Are successful co-authors more important than first authors for publishing academic journal articles?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(4), pages 2211-2232, April.
    5. David I Stern, 2014. "High-Ranked Social Science Journal Articles Can Be Identified from Early Citation Information," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-11, November.
    6. Matthias Kuppler, 2022. "Predicting the future impact of Computer Science researchers: Is there a gender bias?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(11), pages 6695-6732, November.
    7. Akella, Akhil Pandey & Alhoori, Hamed & Kondamudi, Pavan Ravikanth & Freeman, Cole & Zhou, Haiming, 2021. "Early indicators of scientific impact: Predicting citations with altmetrics," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    8. Li Hou & Qiang Wu & Yundong Xie, 2022. "Does early publishing in top journals really predict long-term scientific success in the business field?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(11), pages 6083-6107, November.
    9. Stefanie Ringelhan & Jutta Wollersheim & Isabell M Welpe, 2015. "I Like, I Cite? Do Facebook Likes Predict the Impact of Scientific Work?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    10. Itay Mayrose & Shiri Freilich, 2015. "The Interplay between Scientific Overlap and Cooperation and the Resulting Gain in Co-Authorship Interactions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-10, September.
    11. Yuhao Zhou & Ruijie Wang & An Zeng, 2022. "Predicting the impact and publication date of individual scientists’ future papers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(4), pages 1867-1882, April.
    12. Zhiya Zuo & Kang Zhao, 2021. "Understanding and predicting future research impact at different career stages—A social network perspective," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 72(4), pages 454-472, April.

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