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Forecasting the trend of international scientific collaboration

Author

Listed:
  • S. Varun Shrivats

    (CSIR-National Institute of Science Technology and Development Studies
    Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani K.K. Birla Goa Campus)

  • Sujit Bhattacharya

    (CSIR-National Institute of Science Technology and Development Studies)

Abstract

The study demonstrates an integrated method of forecasting the trend of a country’s publications. In this context the paper examines international collaboration in a country’s overall publication and forecasts its future trend. The integrated method is based on regression and scaling relationship. India is taken as a case study for this examination. The study shows some interesting features of India’s publication pattern based on time-series data. One observes exponential nature of her publication growth from 2002 onwards. International collaboration also exhibits exponential growth roughly from the same period. Also one observes the faster growth of international collaborative papers than the overall growth of research papers. The study predicts values of number of internationally collaborative papers for the years 2015 and 2020. The robustness of the method is also demonstrated.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Varun Shrivats & Sujit Bhattacharya, 2014. "Forecasting the trend of international scientific collaboration," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 101(3), pages 1941-1954, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:101:y:2014:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-014-1364-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-014-1364-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Timur Gareev & Irina Peker, 2023. "Quantity versus quality in publication activity: knowledge production at the regional level," Papers 2311.08830, arXiv.org.
    2. Abramo, Giovanni & D’Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea & Di Costa, Flavia, 2021. "On the relation between the degree of internationalization of cited and citing publications: A field level analysis, including and excluding self-citations," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1).
    3. Jiang Li & Yueting Li, 2015. "Patterns and evolution of coauthorship in China’s humanities and social sciences," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 102(3), pages 1997-2010, March.
    4. Sujit Bhattacharya & Shilpa & Arshia Kaul, 2015. "Emerging countries assertion in the global publication landscape of science: a case study of India," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 103(2), pages 387-411, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology forecasting; International collaboration; Exponential growth models; Scaling relationship; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • Y10 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Data: Tables and Charts - - - Data: Tables and Charts

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