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Patents in nanotechnology: an analysis using macro-indicators and forecasting curves

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas Henrique Milanez

    (Federal University of São Carlos)

  • Leandro Innocentini Lopes Faria

    (Federal University of São Carlos)

  • Roniberto Morato Amaral

    (Federal University of São Carlos)

  • Daniel Rodrigo Leiva

    (Federal University of São Carlos)

  • José Angelo Rodrigues Gregolin

    (Federal University of São Carlos)

Abstract

In this study, we evaluated future trends of worldwide patenting in nanotechnology and its domains using logistic growth curves while the patent activity from the main countries, technological domains and subdomains were assessed in four different contexts: worldwide, patents filed in the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), and patents applications in the triadic (TRIAD) and in the tetradic (TETRAD) countries. The indicators were developed based on a set of records recovered from the Derwent Innovation Index database. Nanotechnology has recently emerged as a new research field, with logistic trend behaviors generating interesting discussions since they suggest that technological development in nanotechnology and its domains has reached an initial maturation stage. Future scenarios were compiled due to the difficult to establish upper limits to forecasting curves. Although China’s share of patents is small in some cases, it was the only country to constantly increase the number of patents from a worldwide perspective. In contrast, the USA and the EU were the most active in the USPTO, TRIAD and TETRAD cases, followed by Japan and Korea. The technological subdomains of main interest from countries/region changed according to the perspective adopted, even though there was a clear bias towards semiconductors, surface treatments, electrical components, macromolecular chemistry, materials–metallurgy, pharmacy–cosmetics and analysis–measurement–control subdomains. We conclude that monitoring nanotechnology advances should be constantly reviewed in order to confirm the evidence observed and forecasted.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Henrique Milanez & Leandro Innocentini Lopes Faria & Roniberto Morato Amaral & Daniel Rodrigo Leiva & José Angelo Rodrigues Gregolin, 2014. "Patents in nanotechnology: an analysis using macro-indicators and forecasting curves," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 101(2), pages 1097-1112, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:101:y:2014:i:2:d:10.1007_s11192-014-1244-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-014-1244-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Masatsura Igami, 2008. "Exploration of the evolution of nanotechnology via mapping of patent applications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 77(2), pages 289-308, November.
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    7. Cheng, An-Chin & Chen, Chia-Yon, 2008. "The Technology Forecasting Of New Materials: The Example Of Nanosized Ceramic Powders," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 88-110, December.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Elena M. Tur & Evangelos Bourelos & Maureen McKelvey, 2022. "The case of sleeping beauties in nanotechnology: a study of potential breakthrough inventions in emerging technologies," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 69(3), pages 683-708, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bibliometrics; Technological forecasting; S-shaped curves; Nanotechnology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

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