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Distance-learning For Approximate Bayesian Computation To Model a Volcanic Eruption

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Pacchiardi

    (University of Oxford)

  • Pierre Künzli

    (University of Geneva)

  • Marcel Schöngens

    (Six Group AG)

  • Bastien Chopard

    (University of Geneva)

  • Ritabrata Dutta

    (Warwick University)

Abstract

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides us with a way to infer parameters of models, for which the likelihood function is not available, from an observation. Using ABC, which depends on many simulations from the considered model, we develop an inferential framework to learn parameters of a stochastic numerical simulator of volcanic eruption. Moreover, the model itself is parallelized using Message Passing Interface (MPI). Thus, we develop a nested-parallelized MPI communicator to handle the expensive numerical model with ABC algorithms. ABC usually relies on summary statistics of the data in order to measure the discrepancy model output and observation. However, informative summary statistics cannot be found for the considered model. We therefore develop a technique to learn a distance between model outputs based on deep metric-learning. We use this framework to learn the plume characteristics (eg. initial plume velocity) of the volcanic eruption from the tephra deposits collected by field-work associated with the 2450 BP Pululagua (Ecuador) volcanic eruption.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Pacchiardi & Pierre Künzli & Marcel Schöngens & Bastien Chopard & Ritabrata Dutta, 2021. "Distance-learning For Approximate Bayesian Computation To Model a Volcanic Eruption," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 83(1), pages 288-317, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:sankhb:v:83:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s13571-019-00208-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s13571-019-00208-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C. C. Drovandi & A. N. Pettitt, 2011. "Estimation of Parameters for Macroparasite Population Evolution Using Approximate Bayesian Computation," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 225-233, March.
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    4. Espen Bernton & Pierre E. Jacob & Mathieu Gerber & Christian P. Robert, 2019. "Approximate Bayesian computation with the Wasserstein distance," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 81(2), pages 235-269, April.
    5. Yanyuan Ma & Liping Zhu, 2013. "A Review on Dimension Reduction," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 134-150, April.
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