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Set of Methods and Procedures for Analyzing and Forecasting the Development of the Eastern Regions of the Russian Federation

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  • S. A. Suspitsyn

    (Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— A scheme has been developed for assessing the impact of investments on the GRP growth in a region, the country, and the eastern zone of the Russian Federation, based on an analysis of the investment cycle investments–fixed assets–GRP–investments, the movement of the age strata of fixed assets, and their capital productivity. Triple helix models of interaction of the main factors of regional development (GRP, investment, and household income) in a multiregional system are proposed. The method of coordinating the conditions for the development of regions of different hierarchical levels is substantiated, in particular, the correct translation of the key macroeconomic parameters of the country’s economic development to regions. Its interpretation is proposed in terms of the triple helix model based on the center–periphery approach. Algorithms for joint use of the proposed methods in a set of simulated regional macromodels have been developed. The features of the socioeconomic situation of the eastern regions of the Russian Federation have been studied, experimental calculations of the regional development for the period up to 2035 have been performed and analyzed using a moderately optimistic scenario of the growth levels of key parameters of the economy (population size and income, growth in the share of investments in GRP, etc.).

Suggested Citation

  • S. A. Suspitsyn, 2021. "Set of Methods and Procedures for Analyzing and Forecasting the Development of the Eastern Regions of the Russian Federation," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 65-77, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:rrorus:v:11:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1134_s2079970522010087
    DOI: 10.1134/S2079970522010087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elias G. Carayannis & Alexey E. Cherepovitsyn & Alina A. Ilinova, 2017. "Sustainable Development of the Russian Arctic zone energy shelf: the Role of the Quintuple Innovation Helix Model," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(2), pages 456-470, June.
    2. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu & Ugo Fratesi, 2017. "Modeling Regional Growth between Competitiveness and Austerity Measures," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(1), pages 38-74, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir N. Timokhin & Dmitry B. Berg & Andrei G. Shelomentsev, 2023. "Experimental System-Dynamic Model of an Influence of a Level of Education on a Spatial Differentiation of a Population of Russian Regions," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(4), pages 861-891.

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