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After crisis scenarios for Europe: alternative evolutions of structural adjustments

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  • Roberta Capello
  • Andrea Caragliu

Abstract

Structural adjustment in the European Union emerged as the result of the 7-year crisis, providing risks and opportunities to national and regional economies. The effects that these structural changes will generate are difficult to be foreseen. This article builds after-crisis scenarios for Europe on the basis of alternative evolutions of these structural changes. On the basis of a regional forecasting model (MASST3), the article presents two opposite scenarios: the ‘place-based’ competitiveness’ and the ‘social cohesion’ one. Results unexpectedly show that the place-based competitiveness scenario achieves both the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates and the lowest increase in regional disparities.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu, 2016. "After crisis scenarios for Europe: alternative evolutions of structural adjustments," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 81-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:9:y:2016:i:1:p:81-101.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cjres/rsv023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip McCann & Ortega Ortega-Argil?s, 2014. "The Role of the Smart Specialisation Agenda in a Reformed EU Cohesion Policy," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(1), pages 15-32.
    2. Visintin Stefano & Maroto Andres & Di Meglio Gisela & Rubalcaba Luis, 2010. "The Role of Cost Related Factors in the Competitiveness of European Services," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-25, October.
    3. Roberta Capello & Ugo Fratesi & Laura Resmini, 2011. "Globalization and Regional Growth in Europe," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-642-19251-7, February.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    5. Roberto Camagni & Roberta Capello (ed.), 2011. "Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14523.
    6. Roberto Camagni, 2008. "Regional Competitiveness: Towards a Concept of Territorial Capital," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Modelling Regional Scenarios for the Enlarged Europe, chapter 2, pages 33-47, Springer.
    7. Roberta Capello & Roberto Camagni & Barbara Chizzolini & Ugo Fratesi, 2008. "Modelling Regional Scenarios for the Enlarged Europe," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-540-74737-6, February.
    8. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu & Ugo Fratesi, 2016. "The costs of the economic crisis: which scenario for the European regions?," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(1), pages 113-130, February.
    9. Barbara Chizzolini & Ugo Fratesi, 2008. "The Simulation Procedure: The Algorithm, the Target Variables and the Stability of the Model," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Modelling Regional Scenarios for the Enlarged Europe, chapter 7, pages 123-152, Springer.
    10. Roberta Capello & Ugo Fratesi, 2012. "Modelling Regional Growth: An Advanced MASST Model," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 293-318, September.
    11. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu & Ugo Fratesi, 2017. "Modeling Regional Growth between Competitiveness and Austerity Measures," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(1), pages 38-74, January.
    12. Philip McCann & Raquel Ortega-Argilés, 2011. "Smart specialisation, regional growth and applications to EU cohesion policy," Working Papers 2011/14, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    13. Philip McCann & Raquel Ortega-Argilés, 2011. "Smart specialisation, regional growth and applications to EU cohesion policy," Working Papers 2011/14, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Gianmoena & Vicente Rios, 2018. "The Determinants of Resilience in European Regions During the Great Recession: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Discussion Papers 2018/235, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2017. "Addressing the Core-Periphery Imbalances in Europe: Resource Misallocation and Expansionary Fiscal Policies," EconPol Working Paper 6, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Pedro Sánchez-Zamora & Rosa Gallardo-Cobos, 2019. "Diversity, Disparity and Territorial Resilience in the Context of the Economic Crisis: An Analysis of Rural Areas in Southern Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Sébastien BOURDIN, 2018. "Géographie de la résilience des régions européennes face à la crise (2008-2013)," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 48, pages 53-70.
    5. Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura & Ron Martin & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2016. "The economic crisis in Europe: urban and regional consequences," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 3-11.

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