IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reaccs/v26y2021i2d10.1007_s11142-020-09567-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Management forecasts of volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Atif Ellahie

    (University of Utah)

  • Xiaoxia Peng

    (University of Utah)

Abstract

We examine the predictive information content of the management forecasts of stock return volatility (i.e., expected volatility) that are disclosed in annual reports. We find that expected volatility predicts near-term and longer-term stock return volatility and earnings volatility incremental to implied volatility, historical volatility, firm characteristics, and alternative measures of uncertainty. We also find that expected volatility reflects managers’ private information about their firms’ future investment activities, such as mergers and acquisitions and R&D intensity. Finally, we find that the predictive power of expected volatility shrinks when managers have stronger incentives to manage earnings. Overall, we provide novel evidence that management forecasts of volatility contain private information about future uncertainty that can help forecast volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Atif Ellahie & Xiaoxia Peng, 2021. "Management forecasts of volatility," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 620-655, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:26:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11142-020-09567-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-020-09567-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11142-020-09567-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11142-020-09567-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Leslie Hodder & William J. Mayew & Mary Lea McAnally & Connie D. Weaver, 2006. "Employee Stock Option Fair†Value Estimates: Do Managerial Discretion and Incentives Explain Accuracy?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 933-975, December.
    3. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2015. "The Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 1-44, June.
    4. Daphne Lui & Stanimir Markov & Ane Tamayo, 2012. "Equity Analysts and the Market's Assessment of Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 1287-1317, December.
    5. Choudhary, Preeti, 2011. "Evidence on differences between recognition and disclosure: A comparison of inputs to estimate fair values of employee stock options," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 77-94, February.
    6. Daphne Lui & Stanimir Markov & Ane Tamayo, 2007. "What Makes a Stock Risky? Evidence from Sell‐Side Analysts' Risk Ratings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 629-665, June.
    7. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    8. Jerry A. Hausman & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2017. "Estimating dynamic panel models: backing out the Nickell Bias," Staff Reports 824, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2005. "Correcting the Errors: Volatility Forecast Evaluation Using High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 279-296, January.
    10. Hemmer, Thomas & Matsunaga, Steve & Shevlin, Terry, 1996. "The influence of risk diversification on the early exercise of employee stock options by executive officers," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 45-68, February.
    11. Paul Gompers & Joy Ishii & Andrew Metrick, 2003. "Corporate Governance and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 107-156.
    12. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    13. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    14. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    15. Jerry Hausman & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2017. "Estimating dynamic panel models: backing out the Nickell Bias," CeMMAP working papers CWP53/17, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Burgstahler, David & Dichev, Ilia, 1997. "Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 99-126, December.
    17. Derek Johnston, 2006. "Managing Stock Option Expense: The Manipulation of Option†Pricing Model Assumptions," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 395-425, June.
    18. Choudhary, Preeti, 2011. "Evidence on differences between recognition and disclosure: A comparison of inputs to estimate fair values of employee stock options," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 77-94.
    19. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    20. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    21. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    22. Degeorge, Francois & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1999. "Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-33, January.
    23. Ou, Jane A. & Penman, Stephen H., 1989. "Financial statement analysis and the prediction of stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 295-329, November.
    24. Goyal, Amit & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Cross-section of option returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 310-326, November.
    25. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    26. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    27. Dan S. Dhaliwal & Steven E. Kaplan & Rick C. Laux & Eric Weisbrod, 2013. "The Information Content of Tax Expense for Firms Reporting Losses," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 135-164, March.
    28. Huddart, Steven & Lang, Mark, 1996. "Employee stock option exercises an empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-43, February.
    29. Stephen H. Penman & Francesco Reggiani & Scott A. Richardson & İrem Tuna, 2018. "A framework for identifying accounting characteristics for asset pricing models, with an evaluation of book‐to‐price," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(4), pages 488-520, September.
    30. Li, Ningzhong & Richardson, Scott & Tuna, İrem, 2014. "Macro to micro: Country exposures, firm fundamentals and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-20.
    31. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    32. Theodosia Konstantinidi & Peter F. Pope, 2016. "Forecasting Risk in Earnings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 487-525, June.
    33. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    34. Hayes, Rachel M. & Lemmon, Michael & Qiu, Mingming, 2012. "Stock options and managerial incentives for risk taking: Evidence from FAS 123R," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 174-190.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Atif Ellahie & Zachary Kaplan, 2021. "Show Me the Money! Dividend Policy in Countries with Weak Institutions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 613-655, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    2. Hirshleifer, David & Kewei Hou & Teoh, Siew Hong & Yinglei Zhang, 2004. "Do investors overvalue firms with bloated balance sheets?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 297-331, December.
    3. Anil Mishra, 2014. "Foreign Ownership and Firm Value: Evidence from Australian Firms," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 21(1), pages 67-96, March.
    4. Al-Shattarat, Basiem & Hussainey, Khaled & Al-Shattarat, Wasim, 2022. "The impact of abnormal real earnings management to meet earnings benchmarks on future operating performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    6. Vincent Chen & Samuel Tiras, 2015. "‘Other information’ as an explanatory factor for the opposite market reactions to earnings surprises," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 757-784, November.
    7. Alexander Merz, 2020. "Expensing performance-vested executive stock options: is there underreporting under IFRS 2?," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 461-493, April.
    8. Gikas Hardouvelis & George Papanastasopoulos & Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Tao Wang, 2007. "Accruals, Net Stock Issues and Value-Glamour Anomalies: New Evidence on their Relation," Working Paper series 47_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. G.P. Kourtis & L.P. Κourtis & M.P. Kourtis & P. Curtis, 2017. "Fundamental Analysis, Stock Returns and High B/M Companies," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 3-18.
    10. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 28-49.
    11. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    12. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Modeling CAC40 volatility using ultra-high frequency data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 68-81.
    13. Richard Mawulawoe Ahadzie & Nagaratnam Jeyasreedharan, 2024. "Higher‐order moments and asset pricing in the Australian stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(1), pages 75-128, March.
    14. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    15. Bornemann, Sven & Kick, Thomas & Memmel, Christoph & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2012. "Are banks using hidden reserves to beat earnings benchmarks? Evidence from Germany," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2403-2415.
    16. Yiwei Dou & M. H. Franco Wong & Baohua Xin, 2019. "The Effect of Financial Reporting Quality on Corporate Investment Efficiency: Evidence from the Adoption of SFAS No. 123R," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2249-2266, May.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim & Zhang, Benjamin Y. B., 2003. "Measuring and modeling systematic risk in factor pricing models using high-frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 533-558, December.
    18. Bens, Daniel A. & Nagar, Venky & Skinner, Douglas J. & Wong, M. H. Franco, 2003. "Employee stock options, EPS dilution, and stock repurchases," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 51-90, December.
    19. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    20. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility forecasting; Expected volatility; Disclosure; Management forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:26:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11142-020-09567-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.