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A framework for identifying accounting characteristics for asset pricing models, with an evaluation of book‐to‐price

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  • Stephen H. Penman
  • Francesco Reggiani
  • Scott A. Richardson
  • İrem Tuna

Abstract

We provide a framework for identifying accounting numbers that indicate risk and expected return. Under specified accounting conditions for measuring earnings and book value, book‐to‐price (B/P) indicates expected returns, providing justification for B/P in asset pricing models. However, the framework also points to earnings‐to‐price (E/P) as a risk characteristic. Indeed, E/P, rather than B/P, is the relevant characteristic when there is no expected earnings growth, but the weight shifts to B/P with growth. Using this framework we resolve a puzzle: in contrast to previous empirical research, we find that leverage is positively associated with future returns, as predicted by theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen H. Penman & Francesco Reggiani & Scott A. Richardson & İrem Tuna, 2018. "A framework for identifying accounting characteristics for asset pricing models, with an evaluation of book‐to‐price," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(4), pages 488-520, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:24:y:2018:i:4:p:488-520
    DOI: 10.1111/eufm.12171
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Grinblatt, Mark, 2021. "Global market inefficiencies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 234-259.
    3. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    4. Stephen H. Penman & Nir Yehuda, 2019. "A Matter of Principle: Accounting Reports Convey Both Cash-Flow News and Discount-Rate News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5584-5602, December.
    5. Atif Ellahie & Xiaoxia Peng, 2021. "Management forecasts of volatility," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 620-655, June.
    6. Stephen Penman & Julie Zhu & Haofei Wang, 2023. "The implied cost of capital: accounting for growth," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1029-1056, October.
    7. Alexander P. Paton & Damien Cannavan & Stephen Gray & Khoa Hoang, 2020. "Analyst versus model‐based earnings forecasts: implied cost of capital applications," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 4061-4092, December.
    8. Kathryn E. Easterday & Pradyot K. Sen, 2023. "Another look at the dividend-price relationship in the accounting valuation framework," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 879-925, October.
    9. Guillaume Coqueret, 2022. "Characteristics-driven returns in equilibrium," Papers 2203.07865, arXiv.org.
    10. Penman, Stephen & Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2020. "A theoretical analysis connecting conservative accounting to the cost of capital," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    11. Penman, Stephen & Zhu, Julie, 2022. "An accounting-based asset pricing model and a fundamental factor," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    12. Kewei Hou & Haitao Mo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2019. "Security Analysis: An Investment Perspective," NBER Working Papers 26060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Stefan Dierkes & Ulrich Schäfer, 2021. "Valuation of firms with multiple business units," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(4), pages 401-432, May.

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