IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/qualqt/v54y2020i3d10.1007_s11135-020-00968-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A probabilistic projection of beneficiaries of long-term care insurance in Germany by severity of disability

Author

Listed:
  • Patrizio Vanella

    (Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover
    Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research)

  • Moritz Heß

    (Universität Bremen)

  • Christina B. Wilke

    (FOM Hochschulzentrum Bremen)

Abstract

Demographic aging puts social insurance systems under immense pressure as frailty risks increase with age. The statutory long-term care insurance in Germany (GPV), whose society has been aging for decades due to low fertility and decreasing mortality, faces massive future pressure. The present study presents a stochastic outlook on long-term care insurance in Germany until 2045 by forecasting the future number of frail persons who could claim insurance services by severity level with theory-based Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations result in credible intervals for age-, sex- and severity-specific care rates as well as the numbers of persons for all combinations of age, sex and severity by definition of the GPV on an annual basis. The model accounts for demographic trends through time series analysis and considers all realistic epidemiological developments by simulation. The study shows that increases in the general prevalence of disabilities, especially for severe disabilities, caused by the demographic development in Germany are unavoidable, whereas the influence of changes in age-specific care risks does not affect the outcome significantly. The results may serve as a basis for estimating the future demand for care nurses and the financial expenses of the GPV.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrizio Vanella & Moritz Heß & Christina B. Wilke, 2020. "A probabilistic projection of beneficiaries of long-term care insurance in Germany by severity of disability," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 943-974, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:54:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-020-00968-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-020-00968-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-020-00968-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11135-020-00968-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert F. Schoeni & Vicki A. Freedman & Robert B. Wallace, 2001. "Persistent, Consistent, Widespread, and Robust? Another Look at Recent Trends in Old-Age Disability," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 56(4), pages 206-218.
    2. Kenneth G. Manton & XiLiang Gu & Vicki L. Lamb, 2006. "Long‐Term Trends in Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(1), pages 81-105, March.
    3. Bernhard Babel & Eckart Bomsdorf & Rafael Schmidt, 2008. "Forecasting German mortality using panel data procedures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 541-555, July.
    4. Maria Fastame & Paul Hitchcott & Maria Penna, 2015. "Does education influence visuo-spatial and verbal immediate serial recall in healthy older adults?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2155-2167, September.
    5. Lin, S.-F. & Beck, A.N. & Finch, B.K. & Hummer, R.A. & Master, R.K., 2012. "Trends in US older adult disability: Exploring age, period, and cohort effects," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(11), pages 2157-2163.
    6. Thang Tien Nguyen & Ngoc Bich Le & Lan Hoang Vu & Anh Vu Le, 2019. "Quality of life and its association among older people in rural Vietnam," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 131-141, January.
    7. Rothgang, Heinz & Vogler, Anke, 1997. "Die zukünftige Entwicklung der Zahl der Pflegebedürftigen bis zum Jahre 2040 und ihre Einflußgrößen," Working papers of the ZeS 06/1997, University of Bremen, Centre for Social Policy Research (ZeS).
    8. Ammara Cheema, 2013. "Upcoming picture of ageing population: Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2399-2413, August.
    9. Eileen M. Crimmins & Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, 2010. "Mortality and Morbidity Trends: Is There Compression of Morbidity?," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 66(1), pages 75-86.
    10. Fuino, Michel & Wagner, Joël, 2020. "Duration of long-term care: Socio-economic factors, type of care interactions and evolution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 151-168.
    11. Muhammad Tariq Majeed & Farzana Naheed Khan, 2019. "Do information and communication technologies (ICTs) contribute to health outcomes? An empirical analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-206, January.
    12. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shemendyuk, Aleksandr & Wagner, Joël, 2024. "On the factors determining the health profiles and care needs of institutionalized elders," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 223-241.
    2. Chen, An & Fuino, Michel & Sehner, Thorsten & Wagner, Joël, 2022. "Valuation of long-term care options embedded in life annuities," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 68-94, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad N. Mahmood & Subas P. Dhakal, 2023. "Ageing population and society: a scientometric analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3133-3150, August.
    2. J. Iñaki De La Peña & M. Cristina Fernández-Ramos & Asier Garayeta, 2021. "Cost-Free LTC Model Incorporated into Private Pension Schemes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Gianni Corsetti & Marco Marsili, 2013. "Previsioni stocastiche della popolazione nell’ottica di un Istituto Nazionale di Statistica," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(2-3), pages 5-29.
    4. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    5. Wanchuan Lin, 2009. "Why has the health inequality among infants in the US declined? Accounting for the shrinking gap," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 823-841, July.
    6. Holzmann, Robert & Alonso-García, Jennifer & Labit-Hardy, Heloise & Villegas, Andres M., 2017. "NDC Schemes and Heterogeneity in Longevity: Proposals for Redesign," IZA Discussion Papers 11193, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Holger Strulik & Katharina Werner, 2016. "50 is the new 30—long-run trends of schooling and retirement explained by human aging," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 165-187, June.
    8. Nico Keilman, 2020. "Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 49-64.
    9. Ryan Masters & Robert Hummer & Daniel Powers & Audrey Beck & Shih-Fan Lin & Brian Finch, 2014. "Long-Term Trends in Adult Mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: An Examination of Period- and Cohort-Based Changes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2047-2073, December.
    10. Hermann Ndoya & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "Digital divide, globalization and income inequality in sub-Saharan African countries: analysing cross-country heterogeneity," Social Responsibility Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(1), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Shemendyuk, Aleksandr & Wagner, Joël, 2024. "On the factors determining the health profiles and care needs of institutionalized elders," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 223-241.
    12. William Lim & Gaurav Khemka & David Pitt & Bridget Browne, 2019. "A method for calculating the implied no-recovery three-state transition matrix using observable population mortality incidence and disability prevalence rates among the elderly," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 245-282, September.
    13. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) as catalyst for the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) at the local level in Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/084, African Governance and Development Institute..
    14. Emad Kazemzadeh & José Alberto Fuinhas & Narges Salehnia & Fariba Osmani, 2023. "The effect of economic complexity, fertility rate, and information and communication technology on ecological footprint in the emerging economies: a two-step stirpat model and panel quantile regressio," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 737-763, February.
    15. A. Remund & S. Cullati & S. Sieber & C. Burton-Jeangros & M. Oris, 2019. "Longer and healthier lives for all? Successes and failures of a universal consumer-driven healthcare system, Switzerland, 1990–2014," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 64(8), pages 1173-1181, November.
    16. Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Jeffrey Lin, 2007. "Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 347-369, June.
    17. Teresa Ghilarducci & Kyle Moore, 2015. "Racially Disparate Effects of Raising the Retirement Age," SCEPA working paper series. 2015-03, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    18. Rodríguez, Julio, 2008. "A methodology for population projections: an application to Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws084512, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    19. Courtney Coile, 2018. "Working Longer in the U.S.: Trends and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 24576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:54:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-020-00968-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.