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Long‐Term Trends in Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy in the United States

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  • Kenneth G. Manton
  • XiLiang Gu
  • Vicki L. Lamb

Abstract

Changes in life expectancy and in active life expectancy may have effects on the fiscal integrity of both the Social Security and Medicare programs. Analysis of the fiscal stability of these programs shows that the most serious problem may be the growth of Medicare expenditures projected to surpass, in about 2024, Social Security costs. This is aggravated by the associated rapid growth of the Medicaid program. To understand how the growth of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security might be correlated we present estimates of changes in life expectancy and active life expectancy from 1935 to 1999 and then project those values to 2080. How the correlation of life expectancy and active life expectancy changes over time, and by age, may provide insights into how increased health care expenditures, if effective in changing health in the elderly, could modify the age structure of the labor force and the availability of human capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth G. Manton & XiLiang Gu & Vicki L. Lamb, 2006. "Long‐Term Trends in Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(1), pages 81-105, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:32:y:2006:i:1:p:81-105
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00106.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fogel,Robert William, 2004. "The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700–2100," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521808781.
    2. David M. Cutler & Alan M. Garber, 2004. "Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 7," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number cutl04-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrizio Vanella & Moritz Heß & Christina B. Wilke, 2020. "A probabilistic projection of beneficiaries of long-term care insurance in Germany by severity of disability," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 943-974, June.
    2. M. Martin Boyer, 2018. "La gestion et le dépistage des risques liés au vieillissement, et le rôle des régimes de retraite dans le marché de l’assurance de soins de longue durée," CIRANO Project Reports 2018rp-03, CIRANO.
    3. Fang, H., 2016. "Insurance Markets for the Elderly," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 237-309, Elsevier.
    4. repec:got:cegedp:141 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Strulik, Holger & Werner, Katharina, 2012. "Life Expectancy, Labor Supply, and Long-Run Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-497, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. Martin Boyer & Franca Glenzer, 2016. "Pensions, annuities, and long-term care insurance: On the impact of risk screening," Cahiers de recherche 1603, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    7. Holger Strulik & Katharina Werner, 2016. "50 is the new 30—long-run trends of schooling and retirement explained by human aging," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 165-187, June.
    8. Hirazawa, Makoto & Yakita, Akira, 2017. "Labor supply of elderly people, fertility, and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 75-96.
    9. J. Iñaki De La Peña & M. Cristina Fernández-Ramos & Asier Garayeta, 2021. "Cost-Free LTC Model Incorporated into Private Pension Schemes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Strulik, Holger, 2015. "Frailty, mortality, and the demand for medical care," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 5-12.
    11. Istvan Majer & Ralph Stevens & Wilma Nusselder & Johan Mackenbach & Pieter Baal, 2013. "Modeling and Forecasting Health Expectancy: Theoretical Framework and Application," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 673-697, April.

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