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Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan

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  • Amber Fatima
  • Abdul Waheed

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of economic uncertainty on growth performance of Pakistan through developing a small macroeconomic model. The GARCH method has been used for construction of economic uncertainty variables related to macroeconomic policies. The structural outcomes clearly indicate that economic policy uncertainty affects negatively on real and nominal sectors of Pakistan. The forecasting of model and different policy uncertainty simulation shocks also indicated that an adjustment in economic policies due to change of policy objectives create uncertain environment in country, which not only deteriorates the investment climate of country, it also affects the economic growth. Our study concludes that economic uncertainty not only reduces the current investment and economic growth, it also affects the future decision of investment and economic growth. This study suggests that sustainable and steady economic policies always reduce economic uncertainty and promote the confidence of economic agents, which help in achieving the targets of investment, trade and economic growth. Our study also maintains the predictability and reliability of government policies for the accomplishment of macroeconomic goals and economic development of country. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:48:y:2014:i:3:p:1361-1387
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-013-9841-5
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    2. Faisal Sultan Qadri & Abdul Waheed, 2020. "The Contribution of Human Capital in Aggregate and Sectoral Production: Evidence from Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 365-376, April.
    3. Bogdan DIMA & Marius Sorin DINCĂ & Ştefana Maria DIMA & Gheorghiţa DINCĂ, 2017. "Does Economic Policies Uncertainty affect Economic Activity? Evidences from the United States of America," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 60-74, March.
    4. M.A. Villanthenkodath & K. Hafsal & A. K. Dawood & N. Cheriyambadan, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and sectoral level output in India: The implications on structural change," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13.
    5. Yonghong JIANG & Juan MENG & He NIE, 2018. "Visiting the Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks - Economic Growth Relationship: Wavelet-based Granger-Causality in Quantiles Approac," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 80-94, December.

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