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Does uncertainty affect economic growth? : an empirical analysis

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  • Lensink, Robert
  • Bo, Hong
  • Sterken, Elmer

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on economic growth. We construct measures of export uncertainty, government policy uncertainty and price uncertainty to augment a growth model, and using econometric techniques we test for robustness of the effects of these measure on economic growth in a cross-section of 138 developing and developed economies during 1970-1995. The result clearly shows a robust and negative effect of uncertainty on economic growth. These results underline the importance of export stability and policy credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Lensink, Robert & Bo, Hong & Sterken, Elmer, 1999. "Does uncertainty affect economic growth? : an empirical analysis," CCSO Working Papers 199902, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugccs:199902
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    File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/241005248
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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