IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v46y2007i2p145-161.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Public Expenditure and Macroeconomic Uncertainty Matter to Private Investment? Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Imtiaz Ahmed

    (Planning Commission of Pakistan)

  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

Abstract

This study examines the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and public expenditure in determining private fixed investment in Pakistan. It is found that individual series are nonstationary. There is a long-run relationship between private fixed investment, public consumption expenditure, public development expenditure, and market activities. It is revealed that public development expenditure stimulates private investment, whereas public consumption expenditure is detrimental to private investment. The preferred dynamic private fixed investment function confirms that in the short run, public development expenditure enhances private investment. Moreover, macroeconomic instability and uncertainty depresses private investment in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Imtiaz Ahmed & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Do Public Expenditure and Macroeconomic Uncertainty Matter to Private Investment? Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 145-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:46:y:2007:i:2:p:145-161
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2007/Volume2/145-161.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Looney, Robert E., 1997. "Infrastructure and private sector investment in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-420.
    2. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Barry Goodwin, 2000. "Determinants of private investment: a cross-regional empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(14), pages 1819-1829.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Joshua Greene & Delano Villanueva, 1991. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 33-58, March.
    5. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    6. Mohsin S. Khan, 1996. "Government Investment and Economic Growth in the Developing World," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 419-439.
    7. Naveed H. Naqvi, 2002. "Crowding-in or Crowding-out? Modelling the Relationship between Public and Private Fixed Capital Formation Using Co-integration Analysis: The Case of Pakistan 1964-2000," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 255-276.
    8. Mario I. Blejer & Mohsin S. Khan, 1984. "Government Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries (Politique des pouvoirs publics et investissement privé dans les pays en développement) (Política estatal e inversión privada en lo," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 31(2), pages 379-403, June.
    9. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    10. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    11. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    12. Chhibber, Ajay & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1988. "Public policy and private investment in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 120, The World Bank.
    13. Alicia H. Munnell, 1992. "Policy Watch: Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 189-198, Fall.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    15. Pereira, Alfred M. & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2001. "Infrastructures and private sector performance in Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 371-384, May.
    16. Krishna Rao Akkina & Mehmet Ali Celebi, 2002. "The Determinants of Private Fixed Investment and the Relationship between Public and Private Capital Accumulation in Turkey," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 243-254.
    17. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2001. "Fiscal Policy and Private Investment in Less Developed Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-32, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Mehdi S. Monadjemi, 1996. "Public Expenditure And Private Investment: A Study of Three OECD Countries," Studies in Economics 9601, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    19. Khan, Mohsin S & Kumar, Manmohan S, 1997. "Public and Private Investment and the Growth Process in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 69-88, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthew McCartney, 2015. "The Missing Economic Magic: The Failure of Trade Liberalization and Exchange Rate Devaluation in Pakistan, 1980–2012," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(Special E), pages 59-86, September.
    2. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.
    3. Muhammad Asif & Amjad Amin & Naila Nazir & Kashif Saeed & Sajjad Jan, 2022. "Role of tariffs, imports substitution and investment efficiency in economic growth of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2215-2232, August.
    4. Nguyen Van Bon, 2021. "Does FDI inflow crowd in private investment? Empirical evidence for the Southeast region of Vietnam from the panel quantile regression approach," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, vol. 11(2), pages 127-136.
    5. Ahmad, Imtiaz & Qayyum, Abdul, 2008. "Effect of Government Spending and Macro-Economic Uncertainty on Private Investment in Services Sector: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 11673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Matthew McCartney, 2018. "The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Considering Contemporary Pakistan through Old-Fashioned Economics and Historical Case Studies," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 19-48, July-Dec.
    7. Van Bon Nguyen, 2023. "The Relationship between Public Expenditure and Private Investment in Developed and Developing Economies: Policy Implications Based on the Difference," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 244(1), pages 37-55, March.
    8. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 112-123, September.
    9. Nilofer, Nilofer & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Growth in Pakistan: The ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 86961, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    10. Ahmad, Imtiaz & Qayyum, Abdul, 2009. "Role of Public Expenditures and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Determining Private Investment in Large Scale Manufacturing Sector of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 29268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Akçay Selçuk & Karasoy Alper, 2020. "Determinants of private investments in Turkey: Examining the role of democracy," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 23-49, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmad, Imtiaz & Qayyum, Abdul, 2009. "Role of Public Expenditures and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Determining Private Investment in Large Scale Manufacturing Sector of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 29268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ahmed Badawi, 2003. "Private capital formation and public investment in Sudan: testing the substitutability and complementarity hypotheses in a growth framework," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 783-799.
    3. Ahmad, Imtiaz & Qayyum, Abdul, 2008. "Effect of Government Spending and Macro-Economic Uncertainty on Private Investment in Services Sector: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 11673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sallahuddin Hassan & Zalila Othman & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2011. "Private and Public Investment in Malaysia: A Panel Time-Series Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 199-210.
    5. Taiwo Akinlo & Olusola Joel Oyeleke, 2018. "Effects of Government Expenditure on Private Investment in Nigerian Economy (1980–2016)," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 4(2), pages 147-156, November.
    6. Ghassan, Hassan B., 2011. "Public and Private Investment in Saudi Economy: Evidence from Weak Exogeneity and Bound Cointegration Tests," MPRA Paper 56537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ahsan Abbas & Eatzaz Ahmed & Fazal Husain, 2019. "Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 307-331.
    8. Hassan B. GHASSAN & Hassan R. ALHAJHOJ, 2012. "Bound Cointegration Test on Private Investment’s Equation: Evidence from Saudi Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    9. Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Khan, Saniya, 2008. "The Determinants of Private Investment and the Relationship between Public and Private Investment in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 49301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Akçay Selçuk & Karasoy Alper, 2020. "Determinants of private investments in Turkey: Examining the role of democracy," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 23-49, March.
    11. Cavallo, Eduardo & Daude, Christian, 2011. "Public investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-81, March.
    12. Tan, Bee Wah & Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "The dynamic relationship between private domestic investment, the user cost of capital, and economic growth in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 27964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Syed, Shabib Haider & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq, 2007. "Public Policy and Private Investment in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 57675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "What Determines Private Investment? The Case of Pakistan," Finance Working Papers 22202, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Lutfi Erden & Randall G. Holcombe, 2006. "The Linkage Between Public and Private Investment: A Co-integration Analysis of a Panel of Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 479-492, Summer.
    16. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2020. "Economic Growth, Public and Private Investment: A Comparative Study of China and the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Ndikumana, Leonce, 2000. "Financial Determinants of Domestic Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 381-400, February.
    18. Stephen S. Everhart & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2001. "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries : Statistics for 1970-2000 and the Impact on Private Investment of Corruption and the Quality of Public Investment," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13989.
    19. Abbas, Aadil & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Which investment (private or public) does contribute to economic growth more? a case study of South Africa," MPRA Paper 108919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Private Investment; Public Expenditure; Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Co-integration; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:46:y:2007:i:2:p:145-161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.