IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/operea/v20y2020i3d10.1007_s12351-018-0372-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio selection in a regime switching market with a bankruptcy state and an uncertain exit-time: multi-period mean–variance formulation

Author

Listed:
  • Reza Keykhaei

    (Khansar Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science)

Abstract

This paper studies three versions of the multi-period mean–variance portfolio selection problem, that are: minimum variance problem, maximum expected return problem and the trade-off problem, in a Markovian regime switching market where the exit-time is uncertain and exogenous. The underlying Markov chain contains an absorbing state, which denotes the bankruptcy state. When the Markov chain switches to this state, the investors only get a random fraction, known as the recovery rate, taking values in [0, 1] of their wealth. Asset returns, as well as recovery rate, depend on the market state. Dynamic programming and Lagrange duality method are used to derive analytical expressions for optimal investment strategies and the mean–variance efficient frontier. It is shown that portfolio selection models with no bankruptcy state and certain exit-time can be considered as special cases of our model. Some numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effect of the recovery rate and exit-probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Reza Keykhaei, 2020. "Portfolio selection in a regime switching market with a bankruptcy state and an uncertain exit-time: multi-period mean–variance formulation," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1231-1254, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:operea:v:20:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s12351-018-0372-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s12351-018-0372-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12351-018-0372-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12351-018-0372-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Celikyurt, U. & Ozekici, S., 2007. "Multiperiod portfolio optimization models in stochastic markets using the mean-variance approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 186-202, May.
    2. Luz Rocío Sotomayor & Abel Cadenillas, 2009. "Explicit Solutions Of Consumption‐Investment Problems In Financial Markets With Regime Switching," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 251-279, April.
    3. Hu, Fengxia & Wang, Rongming, 2017. "Optimal investment–consumption strategy with liability and regime switching model under Value-at-Risk constraint," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 103-118.
    4. Çanakoglu, Ethem & Özekici, Süleyman, 2010. "Portfolio selection in stochastic markets with HARA utility functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 520-536, March.
    5. Zhang, Miao & Chen, Ping & Yao, Haixiang, 2017. "Mean-variance portfolio selection with only risky assets under regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 35-42.
    6. Duan Li & Wan‐Lung Ng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean‐Variance Formulation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 387-406, July.
    7. Nils H. Hakansson, 1971. "Optimal Entrepreneurial Decisions in a Completely Stochastic Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(7), pages 427-449, March.
    8. Cheung, Ka Chun & Yang, Hailiang, 2004. "Asset Allocation with Regime-Switching: Discrete-Time Case," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 99-111, May.
    9. Wu, Huiling & Li, Zhongfei, 2012. "Multi-period mean–variance portfolio selection with regime switching and a stochastic cash flow," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 371-384.
    10. U. Çakmak & S. Özekici, 2006. "Portfolio optimization in stochastic markets," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 63(1), pages 151-168, February.
    11. Ling Zhang & Zhongfei Li & Yunhui Xu & Yongwu Li, 2016. "Multi‐period mean variance portfolio selection under incomplete information," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(6), pages 753-774, November.
    12. Honda, Toshiki, 2003. "Optimal portfolio choice for unobservable and regime-switching mean returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 45-78, October.
    13. Zeng, Yan & Wu, Huiling & Lai, Yongzeng, 2013. "Optimal investment and consumption strategies with state-dependent utility functions and uncertain time-horizon," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 462-470.
    14. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    15. Elliott, Robert J. & Siu, Tak Kuen & Badescu, Alex, 2010. "On mean-variance portfolio selection under a hidden Markovian regime-switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 678-686, May.
    16. Ethem Çanakoğlu & Süleyman Özekici, 2009. "Portfolio selection in stochastic markets with exponential utility functions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 281-297, February.
    17. Chen, Zhiping & Li, Gang & Zhao, Yonggan, 2014. "Time-consistent investment policies in Markovian markets: A case of mean–variance analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 293-316.
    18. Ethem Çanakoğlu & Süleyman Özekici, 2011. "Portfolio selection with imperfect information: A hidden Markov model," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 95-114, March.
    19. Haixiang Yao & Xun Li & Zhifeng Hao & Yong Li, 2016. "Dynamic asset–liability management in a Markov market with stochastic cash flows," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1575-1597, October.
    20. Hakansson, Nils H, 1969. "Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies under Risk, an Uncertain Lifetime, and Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-466, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jyotirmayee Behera & Pankaj Kumar, 2024. "Implementation of machine learning in $$\ell _{\infty }$$ ℓ ∞ -based sparse Sharpe ratio portfolio optimization: a case study on Indian stock market," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1-26, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huiling Wu, 2016. "Optimal Investment-Consumption Strategy under Inflation in a Markovian Regime-Switching Market," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-17, July.
    2. Zhou, Zhongbao & Xiao, Helu & Yin, Jialing & Zeng, Ximei & Lin, Ling, 2016. "Pre-commitment vs. time-consistent strategies for the generalized multi-period portfolio optimization with stochastic cash flows," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 187-202.
    3. Bian, Lihua & Li, Zhongfei & Yao, Haixiang, 2018. "Pre-commitment and equilibrium investment strategies for the DC pension plan with regime switching and a return of premiums clause," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 78-94.
    4. Chen, Zhiping & Li, Gang & Zhao, Yonggan, 2014. "Time-consistent investment policies in Markovian markets: A case of mean–variance analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 293-316.
    5. Zeng, Yan & Li, Zhongfei & Lai, Yongzeng, 2013. "Time-consistent investment and reinsurance strategies for mean–variance insurers with jumps," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 498-507.
    6. Yao, Haixiang & Li, Danping & Wu, Huiling, 2022. "Dynamic trading with uncertain exit time and transaction costs in a general Markov market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Yao, Haixiang & Zeng, Yan & Chen, Shumin, 2013. "Multi-period mean–variance asset–liability management with uncontrolled cash flow and uncertain time-horizon," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 492-500.
    8. Zeng, Yan & Wu, Huiling & Lai, Yongzeng, 2013. "Optimal investment and consumption strategies with state-dependent utility functions and uncertain time-horizon," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 462-470.
    9. Wu, Huiling & Zeng, Yan & Yao, Haixiang, 2014. "Multi-period Markowitz's mean–variance portfolio selection with state-dependent exit probability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 69-78.
    10. Zhang, Caibin & Liang, Zhibin, 2022. "Optimal time-consistent reinsurance and investment strategies for a jump–diffusion financial market without cash," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Lionel Martellini & Branko Uroševi'{c}, 2006. "Static Mean-Variance Analysis with Uncertain Time Horizon," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(6), pages 955-964, June.
    12. Blanchet-Scalliet, Christophette & El Karoui, Nicole & Martellini, Lionel, 2005. "Dynamic asset pricing theory with uncertain time-horizon," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1737-1764, October.
    13. Benjamín Vallejo Jiménez & Francisco Venegas Martínez, 2017. "Optimal consumption and portfolio rules when the asset price is driven by a time-inhomogeneous Markov modulated fractional Brownian motion with," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 314-326.
    14. Mousa, A.S. & Pinheiro, D. & Pinto, A.A., 2016. "Optimal life-insurance selection and purchase within a market of several life-insurance providers," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-141.
    15. Tian Chen & Ruyi Liu & Zhen Wu, 2022. "Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection under non-Markovian regime-switching model with random horizon," Papers 2205.06434, arXiv.org.
    16. Buckley, Winston S. & Brown, Garfield O. & Marshall, Mario, 2012. "A mispricing model of stocks under asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 584-592.
    17. Christian Dehm & Thai Nguyen & Mitja Stadje, 2020. "Non-concave expected utility optimization with uncertain time horizon," Papers 2005.13831, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    18. Huang, Zongyuan & Wang, Haiyang & Wu, Zhen, 2020. "A kind of optimal investment problem under inflation and uncertain time horizon," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    19. Wu, Huiling & Chen, Hua, 2015. "Nash equilibrium strategy for a multi-period mean–variance portfolio selection problem with regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-90.
    20. Huiling Wu & Chengguo Weng & Yan Zeng, 2018. "Equilibrium consumption and portfolio decisions with stochastic discount rate and time-varying utility functions," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(2), pages 541-582, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:operea:v:20:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s12351-018-0372-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.