IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v40y2014icp293-316.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-consistent investment policies in Markovian markets: A case of mean–variance analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Zhiping
  • Li, Gang
  • Zhao, Yonggan

Abstract

The optimal investment policy for a standard multi-period mean–variance model is not time-consistent because the variance operator is not separable in the sense of the dynamic programming principle. With a nested conditional expectation mapping, we develop an investment model with time consistency in Markovian markets. Furthermore, we examine the differences of the investment policies with a riskless asset from those without a riskless asset. Analytical solutions for time-consistent optimal investment policies and the resulting mean–variance efficient frontier are obtained. Finally, using numerical examples, we show that the optimal investment policy derived from our model is more efficient than that of the standard mean–variance model in which the trade-off is determined between the mean and variance of the terminal wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhiping & Li, Gang & Zhao, Yonggan, 2014. "Time-consistent investment policies in Markovian markets: A case of mean–variance analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 293-316.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:293-316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.01.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188914000220
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.01.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. U. Çakmak & S. Özekici, 2006. "Portfolio optimization in stochastic markets," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 63(1), pages 151-168, February.
    2. A. Jobert & L. C. G. Rogers, 2008. "Valuations And Dynamic Convex Risk Measures," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Peixin (Payton) Liu & Kuan Xu & Yonggan Zhao, 2010. "Market Regimes, Sectorial Investments, and Time-Varying Risk Premiums," Working Papers daleconwp2010-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    4. Roorda, Berend & Schumacher, J.M., 2007. "Time consistency conditions for acceptability measures, with an application to Tail Value at Risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 209-230, March.
    5. Honda, Toshiki, 2003. "Optimal portfolio choice for unobservable and regime-switching mean returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 45-78, October.
    6. Peixin (Payton) Liu & Kuan Xu & Yonggan Zhao, 2011. "Market regimes, sectorial investments, and time‐varying risk premiums," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 107-133, April.
    7. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Kang Boda & Jerzy Filar, 2006. "Time Consistent Dynamic Risk Measures," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 63(1), pages 169-186, February.
    9. Luz Rocío Sotomayor & Abel Cadenillas, 2009. "Explicit Solutions Of Consumption‐Investment Problems In Financial Markets With Regime Switching," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 251-279, April.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    11. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 889-935, April.
    12. Dumas, Bernard & Luciano, Elisa, 1991. "An Exact Solution to a Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem under Transactions Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 577-595, June.
    13. Riedel, Frank, 2004. "Dynamic coherent risk measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 185-200, August.
    14. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    15. Wang, J. & Forsyth, P.A., 2011. "Continuous time mean variance asset allocation: A time-consistent strategy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 184-201, March.
    16. Duan Li & Wan‐Lung Ng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean‐Variance Formulation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 387-406, July.
    17. Detlefsen, Kai & Scandolo, Giacomo, 2005. "Conditional and dynamic convex risk measures," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    18. Chen, Zhi-ping & Li, Gang & Guo, Ju-e, 2013. "Optimal investment policy in the time consistent mean–variance formulation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 145-156.
    19. Kai Detlefsen & Giacomo Scandolo, 2005. "Conditional and dynamic convex risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 539-561, October.
    20. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
    21. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Hanqing Jin & Stanley R. Pliska & Xun Yu Zhou, 2005. "Continuous‐Time Mean‐Variance Portfolio Selection With Bankruptcy Prohibition," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 213-244, April.
    22. Berend Roorda & J. M. Schumacher & Jacob Engwerda, 2005. "Coherent Acceptability Measures In Multiperiod Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 589-612, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Reza Keykhaei, 2020. "Portfolio selection in a regime switching market with a bankruptcy state and an uncertain exit-time: multi-period mean–variance formulation," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1231-1254, September.
    2. Bian, Lihua & Li, Zhongfei & Yao, Haixiang, 2018. "Pre-commitment and equilibrium investment strategies for the DC pension plan with regime switching and a return of premiums clause," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 78-94.
    3. Helu Xiao & Tiantian Ren & Zhongbao Zhou, 2019. "Time-Consistent Strategies for the Generalized Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization Considering Benchmark Orientation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-26, August.
    4. Jingnan Fan & Andrzej Ruszczynski, 2014. "Process-Based Risk Measures and Risk-Averse Control of Discrete-Time Systems," Papers 1411.2675, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    5. Zhou, Zhongbao & Xiao, Helu & Yin, Jialing & Zeng, Ximei & Lin, Ling, 2016. "Pre-commitment vs. time-consistent strategies for the generalized multi-period portfolio optimization with stochastic cash flows," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 187-202.
    6. Wu, Huiling & Chen, Hua, 2015. "Nash equilibrium strategy for a multi-period mean–variance portfolio selection problem with regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-90.
    7. Jingnan Fan & Andrzej Ruszczyński, 2018. "Risk measurement and risk-averse control of partially observable discrete-time Markov systems," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 88(2), pages 161-184, October.
    8. Cui, Xiangyu & Li, Duan & Shi, Yun, 2017. "Self-coordination in time inconsistent stochastic decision problems: A planner–doer game framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 91-113.
    9. Yuki Shigeta, 2016. "Optimality of Naive Investment Strategies in Dynamic MeanVariance Optimization Problems with Multiple Priors," Discussion papers e-16-004, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Zhi-ping & Li, Gang & Guo, Ju-e, 2013. "Optimal investment policy in the time consistent mean–variance formulation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 145-156.
    2. Zhiping Chen & Jia Liu & Gang Li & Zhe Yan, 2016. "Composite time-consistent multi-period risk measure and its application in optimal portfolio selection," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(3), pages 515-540, October.
    3. Xiangyu Cui & Duan Li & Xun Li, 2014. "Mean-Variance Policy for Discrete-time Cone Constrained Markets: The Consistency in Efficiency and Minimum-Variance Signed Supermartingale Measure," Papers 1403.0718, arXiv.org.
    4. Rudloff, Birgit & Street, Alexandre & Valladão, Davi M., 2014. "Time consistency and risk averse dynamic decision models: Definition, interpretation and practical consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 743-750.
    5. Dan A. Iancu & Marek Petrik & Dharmashankar Subramanian, 2015. "Tight Approximations of Dynamic Risk Measures," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 655-682, March.
    6. Acciaio, Beatrice & Föllmer, Hans & Penner, Irina, 2012. "Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 50118, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Roorda Berend & Schumacher Hans, 2013. "Membership conditions for consistent families of monetary valuations," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 30(3), pages 255-280, August.
    8. Stadje, Mitja, 2010. "Extending dynamic convex risk measures from discrete time to continuous time: A convergence approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 391-404, December.
    9. Beatrice Acciaio & Irina Penner, 2010. "Dynamic risk measures," Papers 1002.3794, arXiv.org.
    10. Beatrice Acciaio & Hans Foellmer & Irina Penner, 2010. "Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: Model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles," Papers 1002.3627, arXiv.org.
    11. Xiangyu Cui & Xun Li & Duan Li & Yun Shi, 2014. "Time Consistent Behavior Portfolio Policy for Dynamic Mean-Variance Formulation," Papers 1408.6070, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    12. Qinyu Wu & Fan Yang & Ping Zhang, 2023. "Conditional generalized quantiles based on expected utility model and equivalent characterization of properties," Papers 2301.12420, arXiv.org.
    13. Saul Jacka & Seb Armstrong & Abdelkarem Berkaoui, 2017. "On representing and hedging claims for coherent risk measures," Papers 1703.03638, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    14. Xiangyu Cui & Xun Li & Duan Li & Yun Shi, 2017. "Time consistent behavioral portfolio policy for dynamic mean–variance formulation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(12), pages 1647-1660, December.
    15. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera, 2014. "A unified approach to time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time," Papers 1409.7028, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    16. Cong, F. & Oosterlee, C.W., 2016. "On pre-commitment aspects of a time-consistent strategy for a mean-variance investor," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 178-193.
    17. D. Madan & M. Pistorius & M. Stadje, 2017. "On dynamic spectral risk measures, a limit theorem and optimal portfolio allocation," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1073-1102, October.
    18. Beatrice Acciaio & Hans Föllmer & Irina Penner, 2012. "Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 669-709, October.
    19. Jocelyne Bion-Nadal, 2006. "Time Consistent Dynamic Risk Processes, Cadlag Modification," Papers math/0607212, arXiv.org.
    20. Zhang, Miao & Chen, Ping & Yao, Haixiang, 2017. "Mean-variance portfolio selection with only risky assets under regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 35-42.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic time consistency; Mean–variance analysis; Markovian markets; Optimal investment policy; Lagrange multiplier method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:293-316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.