IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v96y2019i3d10.1007_s11069-019-03613-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Traditional prediction of drought under weather and climate uncertainty: analyzing the challenges and opportunities for small-scale farmers in Gaza province, southern region of Mozambique

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela Salite

    (University of Reading)

Abstract

This paper explores the traditional indicators that small-scale farmers in Gaza province in southern Mozambique use to predict drought events on their rain-fed farms. It analyzes the contextual situation regarding the accuracy and reliability of the traditional prediction methods under the current weather and conditions of climate uncertainty and variability, and the opportunities that their prediction methods can bring to reduce their current and future exposure and vulnerabilities to drought. Farmers use a total of 11 traditional environmental indicators to predict drought, either individually or combined, as required to increase their prediction certainty. However, the farmers perceive that current unpredictability, variability, and changes in weather and climate have negatively affected the interpretation, accuracy, and reliability of most of their prediction indicators, and thus their farming activities and their ability to predict and respond to drought. This, associated with the reduced number of elders in the community, is causing a decline in the diversity, and complexity of interpretation of indicators. Nonetheless, these difficulties have not impeded farmers from continuing to use their preferred prediction methods, as on some occasions they continue to be useful for their farming-related decisions and are also the main, or sometimes only, source of forecast. Considering the role these methods play in farmers’ activities, and the limited access to meteorological forecasts in most rural areas of Mozambique, and the fact that the weather and climate is expected to continually change, this paper concludes that it is important to enhance the use of traditional prediction methods. However, the increase of the accuracy and reliability, and continued existence of the methods depends on the farmers’ own abilities to enhance, preserve, and validate them by tailoring the traditional methods used to work with the new environmental, weather, and climatic conditions, or through the development of new methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Salite, 2019. "Traditional prediction of drought under weather and climate uncertainty: analyzing the challenges and opportunities for small-scale farmers in Gaza province, southern region of Mozambique," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1289-1309, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:96:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03613-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03613-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03613-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03613-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julia Urquijo & Lucia De Stefano, 2016. "Perception of Drought and Local Responses by Farmers: A Perspective from the Jucar River Basin, Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 577-591, January.
    2. Justice Tambo & Tahirou Abdoulaye, 2012. "Climate change and agricultural technology adoption: the case of drought tolerant maize in rural Nigeria," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 277-292, March.
    3. D. King & A. Skipper & W. Tawhai, 2008. "Māori environmental knowledge of local weather and climate change in Aotearoa – New Zealand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 90(4), pages 411-412, October.
    4. Lars Otto Naess, 2013. "The role of local knowledge in adaptation to climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), pages 99-106, March.
    5. Sawon Anik & Mohammed Khan, 2012. "Climate change adaptation through local knowledge in the north eastern region of Bangladesh," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(8), pages 879-896, December.
    6. W. Neil Adger & Jon Barnett & Katrina Brown & Nadine Marshall & Karen O'Brien, 2013. "Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 112-117, February.
    7. Louis Lebel, 2013. "Local knowledge and adaptation to climate change in natural resource-based societies of the Asia-Pacific," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(7), pages 1057-1076, October.
    8. Julia Urquijo & Lucia De Stefano, 2016. "Perception of Drought and Local Responses by Farmers: A Perspective from the Jucar River Basin, Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 577-591, January.
    9. Benedito Cunguara & Augustine Langyintuo & Ika Darnhofer, 2011. "The role of nonfarm income in coping with the effects of drought in southern Mozambique," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(6), pages 701-713, November.
    10. Nicole Klenk & Anna Fiume & Katie Meehan & Cerian Gibbes, 2017. "Local knowledge in climate adaptation research: moving knowledge frameworks from extraction to co‐production," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(5), September.
    11. A. Nyong & F. Adesina & B. Osman Elasha, 2007. "The value of indigenous knowledge in climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the African Sahel," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 787-797, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huizhao Yang & Sailesh Ranjitkar & Deli Zhai & Micai Zhong & Stefanie Daniela Goldberg & Muhammad Asad Salim & Zhenghong Wang & Yi Jiang & Jianchu Xu, 2019. "Role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Seasonal Calendars in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Alex Sibanda & Munyika Sibanda, 2021. "Capturing Fading Indigenous Knowledge of Forecasting Rainfall and Drought, A Case of Makonde District, Zimbabwe," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(07), pages 640-648, July.
    3. Walter Leal Filho & Franziska Wolf & Edmond Totin & Luckson Zvobgo & Nicholas Philip Simpson & Kumbirai Musiyiwa & Jokastah W. Kalangu & Maruf Sanni & Ibidun Adelekan & Jackson Efitre & Felix Kwabena , 2023. "Is indigenous knowledge serving climate adaptation? Evidence from various African regions," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 41(2), March.
    4. Alex Sibanda & Munyika Sibanda, 2021. "Capturing Fading Indigenous Knowledge of Forecasting Rainfall and Drought, A Case of Makonde District, Zimbabwe," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(7), pages 640-648, July.
    5. Naser Valizadeh & Latif Haji & Masoud Bijani & Negin Fallah Haghighi & Mahsa Fatemi & Ants-Hannes Viira & Yenny Katherine Parra-Acosta & Alishir Kurban & Hossein Azadi, 2021. "Development of a Scale to Remove Farmers’ Sustainability Barriers to Meteorological Information in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniela Salite, 2019. "Explaining the uncertainty: understanding small-scale farmers’ cultural beliefs and reasoning of drought causes in Gaza Province, Southern Mozambique," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 36(3), pages 427-441, September.
    2. Roger Few & Dian Spear & Chandni Singh & Mark G. L. Tebboth & Julia E. Davies & Mary C. Thompson‐Hall, 2021. "Culture as a mediator of climate change adaptation: Neither static nor unidirectional," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    3. Thinda, K.T. & Ogundeji, A.A. & Belle, J.A. & Ojo, T.O., 2020. "Understanding the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers: Evidence from land reform beneficiaries in South Africa," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Samuel Howard Quartey, 2019. "Geographies of Knowledge and Sustainable Development: Towards a Conceptual Model with Research Propositions," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(2), pages 878-897, June.
    5. Bartosz Bartkowski & Stephan Bartke, 2018. "Leverage Points for Governing Agricultural Soils: A Review of Empirical Studies of European Farmers’ Decision-Making," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-27, September.
    6. Albert Ayorinde Abegunde, 2017. "Local communities’ belief in climate change in a rural region of Sub-Saharan Africa," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1489-1522, August.
    7. German Santacruz-De León & Janete Moran-Ramírez & José Alfredo Ramos-Leal, 2022. "Impact of Drought and Groundwater Quality on Agriculture in a Semi-Arid Zone of Mexico," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, September.
    8. Rahwa Kidane & Martin Prowse & Andreas Neergaard, 2019. "Bespoke Adaptation in Rural Africa? An Asset-Based Approach from Southern Ethiopia," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 31(3), pages 413-432, July.
    9. Paulina Aldunce & Dámare Araya & Rodolfo Sapiain & Issa Ramos & Gloria Lillo & Anahí Urquiza & René Garreaud, 2017. "Local Perception of Drought Impacts in a Changing Climate: The Mega-Drought in Central Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-15, November.
    10. Gómez-Limón, José A., 2020. "Hydrological drought insurance for irrigated agriculture in southern Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    11. Sandra Ricart & Rubén A. Villar-Navascués & Maria Hernández-Hernández & Antonio M. Rico-Amorós & Jorge Olcina-Cantos & Enrique Moltó-Mantero, 2021. "Extending Natural Limits to Address Water Scarcity? The Role of Non-Conventional Water Fluxes in Climate Change Adaptation Capacity: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-31, February.
    12. Son, Ho Ngoc & Chi, Dong Thi Linh & Kingsbury, Aaron, 2019. "Indigenous knowledge and climate change adaptation of ethnic minorities in the mountainous regions of Vietnam: A case study of the Yao people in Bac Kan Province," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    13. Paulina Aldunce & Fernanda Haverbeck & Rodolfo Sapiains & Antonio Quilaqueo & Carmen Paz Castro, 2024. "Public Perception of Drought and Extreme Rainfall Impacts in a Changing Climate: Aconcagua Valley and Chañaral, Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-20, September.
    14. Ana Iglesias & David Santillán & Luis Garrote, 2018. "On the Barriers to Adaption to Less Water under Climate Change: Policy Choices in Mediterranean Countries," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 4819-4832, December.
    15. Azwihangwisi E. Nesamvuni & Khathutshelo A. Tshikolomo & Ndivhudzannyi S. Mpandeli & Melanie de Bruyn & Samkelisiwe Hlophe-Ginindza & Johan van Niekerk, 2022. "Perceptions on irrigation water supply and utilisation by smallholder agricultural enterprises in Vhembe district of Limpopo Province, South Africa," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 27(1), pages 968-979, January.
    16. Villani, Lorenzo & Castelli, Giulio & Piemontese, Luigi & Penna, Daniele & Bresci, Elena, 2022. "Drought risk assessment in Mediterranean agricultural watersheds: A case study in Central Italy," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    17. Heather McMillen & Lindsay K. Campbell & Erika S. Svendsen & Renae Reynolds, 2016. "Recognizing Stewardship Practices as Indicators of Social Resilience: In Living Memorials and in a Community Garden," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-26, August.
    18. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    19. Caviedes, Julián & Ibarra, José Tomás & Calvet-Mir, Laura & Álvarez-Fernández, Santiago & Junqueira, André Braga, 2024. "Indigenous and local knowledge on social-ecological changes is positively associated with livelihood resilience in a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    20. Yen H. T. Nguyen & Tuyen Q. Tran & Dung T. Hoang & Thu M. T. Tran & Trung T. Nguyen, 2023. "Land quality, income, and poverty among rural households in the North Central Region, Vietnam," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 150-172, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:96:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03613-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.