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Probabilistic assessment of annual repair rates in pipelines and of direct economic losses in water and sewage networks: application to Manizales, Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez

    (Centre Internacional de Metodes Numerics en Enginyeria (CIMNE))

  • Daniela Zuloaga

    (INGENIAR Ltda.)

  • Sebastian Henao

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales)

  • Gabriel A. Bernal

    (INGENIAR Ltda.)

  • Omar-Darío Cardona

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales)

Abstract

A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga & Sebastian Henao & Gabriel A. Bernal & Omar-Darío Cardona, 2018. "Probabilistic assessment of annual repair rates in pipelines and of direct economic losses in water and sewage networks: application to Manizales, Colombia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 5-24, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:93:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2987-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2987-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mario Ordaz, 2015. "A simple probabilistic model to combine losses arising from the simultaneous occurrence of several hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 389-396, March.
    2. Juan Quijano & Miguel Jaimes & Marco Torres & Eduardo Reinoso & Luisarturo Castellanos & Jesús Escamilla & Mario Ordaz, 2015. "Event-based approach for probabilistic agricultural drought risk assessment under rainfed conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1297-1318, March.
    3. M. C. Marulanda & M. A. Salgado-Gálvez, 2017. "UNISDR’s global exposure database and disaster risk: current developments and required improvements," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 185-187, March.
    4. Mabel Marulanda & Martha Carreño & Omar Cardona & Mario Ordaz & Alex Barbat, 2013. "Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 59-84, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sungsik Yoon & Young-Joo Lee & Hyung-Jo Jung, 2021. "Flow-based seismic risk assessment of a water transmission network employing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1231-1254, January.

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