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Investigating the presumed causal links between drought and dzud in Mongolia

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  • Troy Sternberg

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Extreme weather events present environmental and social challenges across the Eurasian steppe. In Mongolia much attention is given to drought and dzud (severe winter conditions) impact on rural livelihoods, landscapes and governance. A link between the two events, fostered by international and state agencies, speculates that drought leads to dzud; this has become the widely accepted doctrine. However, the relationship between the two events is assumed rather than analysed. Whilst there may be natural links between climate events, causality is more difficult to establish yet often claimed post-event. This paper stresses Mongolia’s destructive dzuds of 1999–2001 and 2009–2010 in examining drought frequency before dzud events. Findings question the hazard connection as just 3 of 32 examined dzud events were preceded by drought. Investigation did not document a relationship between the disasters; linkages between extreme events were implied rather than established. The human role in disaster also needs to be assessed as preparation, and response are key factors for mitigation. Study results identified a lack of causality between the disasters, suggesting more assiduous investigation of hazards is needed in Mongolia. This can clarify causal factors, identify risk and improve disaster mitigation strategies in Mongolia.

Suggested Citation

  • Troy Sternberg, 2018. "Investigating the presumed causal links between drought and dzud in Mongolia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 27-43, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:92:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2848-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2848-9
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    1. Banzragch Nandintsetseg & Masato Shinoda, 2013. "Assessment of drought frequency, duration, and severity and its impact on pasture production in Mongolia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 995-1008, March.
    2. F. Sönmez & Ali Kömüscü & Ayhan Erkan & Ertan Turgu, 2005. "An Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Dimension of Drought Vulnerability in Turkey Using the Standardized Precipitation Index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 35(2), pages 243-264, June.
    3. Lijuan Miao & Richard Fraser & Zhanli Sun & David Sneath & Bin He & Xuefeng Cui, 2016. "Climate impact on vegetation and animal husbandry on the Mongolian plateau: a comparative analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 727-739, January.
    4. Charlotte Benson, 2011. "Dzud Disaster Financing and Response in Mongolia," World Bank Publications - Reports 13065, The World Bank Group.
    5. Maria Fernandez-Gimenez & Batbuyan Batjav & Batkhishig Baival, 2011. "Understanding Resilience in Mongolian Pastoral Social-ecological Systems : Adapting to Disaster Before, During and After 2010 Dzud--Year 1 Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12758, The World Bank Group.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Engler, John-Oliver & Wesche, Karsten & Kaczensky, Petra & Dhakal, Prabesh & Chuluunkhuyag, Oyundari & von Wehrden, Henrik, 2021. "Biophysical variability and politico-economic singularity: Responses of livestock numbers in South Mongolian nomadic pastoralism," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

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