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Assessment of drought frequency, duration, and severity and its impact on pasture production in Mongolia

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  • Banzragch Nandintsetseg
  • Masato Shinoda

Abstract

Drought frequency, duration, and severity and its impact on pasture productivity in the four main vegetation zones of Mongolia were analyzed using meteorological, soil moisture, and vegetation data during the growing season (April–August) of 1965–2010. Meteorological and pasture drought characteristics were explored using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the soil moisture anomalies percentile index (W p ), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) on 1-month timescale. Generally, 35–37 (15–16 %) by SPI for meteorological drought while 27–29 (12–13 %) by W p , and 16–21 (7–9 %) by PDSI for pasture drought with different durations were identified over the four vegetation zones during the study period. Most of these droughts (80 % by SPI and 50–60 % by both W p and PDSI) observed during the entire events occurred on a 1-month duration with moderate intensity. Drought frequencies were not significantly (p > 0.05) different within the four zones. The frequency of the short-term meteorological droughts was observed relatively greater than pasture droughts; however, pasture droughts were more persistent and severe than meteorological droughts. The three indices show that the frequency and severity of droughts have slightly increased over the 46 years with significant (p > 0.05) dry conditions during the last decade of 2001–2010 in the four zones (except in the high mountain). The results showed the W p was more highly significantly correlated with the precipitation anomalies (r = 0.68) and pasture production (r = 0.55) than PDSI (r = 0.51, p > 0.05 and r = 0.38, p > 0.10, respectively). A statistical model, based on pasture production and the W p , suggested that the consecutive drought months contribution during the growing season was 30 % (p > 0.05) and that pasture production was more sensitive to the occurrence of droughts during June–August (R 2 = 0.32, p > 0.05) as seen in 2000–2002 and 2007. We concluded that a greater severity and frequency of growing-season droughts, during the last decade of 2001–2010, have driven a reduction in pasture production in Mongolia. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Banzragch Nandintsetseg & Masato Shinoda, 2013. "Assessment of drought frequency, duration, and severity and its impact on pasture production in Mongolia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 995-1008, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:66:y:2013:i:2:p:995-1008
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0527-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Banzragch Nandintsetseg & Masato Shinoda & Baasandai Erdenetsetseg, 2018. "Contributions of multiple climate hazards and overgrazing to the 2009/2010 winter disaster in Mongolia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 109-126, November.
    2. Troy Sternberg, 2018. "Investigating the presumed causal links between drought and dzud in Mongolia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 27-43, November.
    3. Troy Sternberg, 2014. "Transboundary hazard risk: the Gobi desert paradigm," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 533-548, June.
    4. Babak Amirataee & Majid Montaseri, 2017. "The performance of SPI and PNPI in analyzing the spatial and temporal trend of dry and wet periods over Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 89-106, March.
    5. Kaoru Kakinuma & Aki Yanagawa & Takehiro Sasaki & Mukund Palat Rao & Shinjiro Kanae, 2019. "Socio-ecological Interactions in a Changing Climate: A Review of the Mongolian Pastoral System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.

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