Quantifying the effect on flood regime of land-use pattern changes via hydrological simulation in the upper Huaihe River basin, China

Both landscape and river systems over most regions of the world, within China in particular, have experienced unprecedented changes in the past decades, and their impacts from these changes undoubtedly have altered storm runoff generation characteristics and flood regimes in these areas. To assess the effect on flood regime of land-use pattern changes, the upper Huaihe River basin above the Dapoling station was selected as the case study site. On the basis of the topography, land-use/land cover, hydrological and meteorological data in 1990s and 2000s, quantification of the response to the land-use pattern change of flood characteristics was made by using the semi-distributed Xinanjiang model integrated with a distributed dual-source evapotranspiration model. The results revealed that land-use pattern change had significant impact on runoff depth, runoff coefficient, together with flood peak size, duration and timing. Moreover, land-use pattern change also altered the partitioning of runoff components and rainfall–runoff relationship. The output could provide valuable references for the prediction and mitigation of flood hazards, and also for river ecological health, scientific planning, sustainable development and management of the Huaihe River basin in the future.