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A storm surge projection and disaster risk assessment model for China coastal areas

Author

Listed:
  • Shuo Yang

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Xin Liu

    (Curtin University)

  • Qiang Liu

    (Ocean University of China)

Abstract

Storm surge is one of the most devastating coastal disasters in China. The average value of the direct economic loss caused by storm surge is 10.7 billion RMB in the last 5 years (2011–2015). There are urgent needs to develop a simple and fast projection and assessment model with less calculation time when facing a storm surge threat and to perform necessary calculation before the storm surge potential risk appears. To achieve that, this paper utilizes the extended Kalman filter (EKF) method to project essential indicators (assessment indicators), i.e., property losses and loss of lives over the process of storm surge risk management based on field observations and measurement indicators. The historical data from 1989 to 2014 are collected and processed according to public data sources. The inherent relationships between the indicators are determined as a preparation of the model establishment, and after that, the EKF storm surge projection model is established. The results of the model in terms of the assessment indicators meet the general trend of the historical data, and the validity of the projection function of the model is verified. A comparable projection by applying artificial neural networks is implemented which shows the results of the EKF model had better accuracy and stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuo Yang & Xin Liu & Qiang Liu, 2016. "A storm surge projection and disaster risk assessment model for China coastal areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 649-667, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:84:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2447-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2447-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xue Jin & U. Rashid Sumaila & Kedong Yin, 2020. "Direct and Indirect Loss Evaluation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Static and Dynamic Input-Output Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Ke Wang & Yongsheng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Quanyi Huang, 2021. "A study into the spatiotemporal distribution of typhoon storm surge disasters in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1237-1256, August.
    3. Hai Sun & Jin Wang & Wentao Ye, 2021. "A Data Augmentation-Based Evaluation System for Regional Direct Economic Losses of Storm Surge Disasters," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-23, March.
    4. Xue Jin & Xiaoxia Shi & Jintian Gao & Tongbin Xu & Kedong Yin, 2018. "Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Xilin Zhang & Dongdong Chu & Jicai Zhang, 2021. "Effects of nonlinear terms and topography in a storm surge model along the southeastern coast of China: a case study of Typhoon Chan-hom," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 551-574, May.
    6. Xiaotong Sui & Mingzhao Hu & Haoyun Wang & Lingdi Zhao, 2023. "Improved elasticity estimation model for typhoon storm surge losses in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2363-2381, March.

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