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An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards

Author

Listed:
  • Geraldo Moura Ramos Filho

    (Federal University of Paraíba)

  • Victor Hugo Rabelo Coelho

    (Federal University of Paraíba)

  • Emerson da Silva Freitas

    (Federal University of Paraíba)

  • Yunqing Xuan

    (Swansea University Bay Campus)

  • Cristiano das Neves Almeida

    (Federal University of Paraíba)

Abstract

This paper presents an improved method of using threshold of peak rainfall intensity for robust flood/flash flood evaluation and warnings in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The improvements involve the use of two tolerance levels and the delineating of an intermediate threshold by incorporating an exponential curve that relates rainfall intensity and Antecedent Precipitation Index (API). The application of the tolerance levels presents an average increase of 14% in the Probability of Detection (POD) of flood and flash flood occurrences above the upper threshold. Moreover, a considerable exclusion (63%) of non-occurrences of floods and flash floods in between the two thresholds significantly reduce the number of false alarms. The intermediate threshold using the exponential curves also exhibits improvements for almost all time steps of both hydrological hazards, with the best results found for floods correlating 8-h peak intensity and 8 days API, with POD and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) values equal to 81% and 82%, respectively. This study provides strong indications that the new proposed rainfall threshold-based approach can help reduce the uncertainties in predicting the occurrences of floods and flash floods.

Suggested Citation

  • Geraldo Moura Ramos Filho & Victor Hugo Rabelo Coelho & Emerson da Silva Freitas & Yunqing Xuan & Cristiano das Neves Almeida, 2021. "An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2409-2429, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04405-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04405-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shiqiang Du & Peijun Shi & Anton Rompaey & Jiahong Wen, 2015. "Quantifying the impact of impervious surface location on flood peak discharge in urban areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1457-1471, April.
    2. Michalis Diakakis, 2012. "Rainfall thresholds for flood triggering. The case of Marathonas in Greece," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 789-800, February.
    3. Shiang-Jen Wu & Chih-Tsung Hsu & Ho-Cheng Lien & Che-Hao Chang, 2015. "Modeling the effect of uncertainties in rainfall characteristics on flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1677-1711, January.
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