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Impacts of ENSO and IOD on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal

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  • Biranchi Mahala
  • Birendra Nayak
  • Pratap Mohanty

Abstract

The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity (intensity, frequency, genesis location, track and average lifetime) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are studied for the period 1891–2007 using cyclone e-Atlas of India Meteorological Department, Niño3.4 Index, Oceanic Niño Index and Dipole Mode Index (DMI). TCs in the present study include cyclones with maximum sustainable wind (MSW) ≥34 knots (referred as cyclonic storms) and severe cyclonic storms with MSW ≥48 knots. The study shows a total of 502 TCs over BoB during the 117-year study period at the rate of 4.29 TC per year. Seven-year running mean of TCs for the period 1891–2007 shows a decreasing trend. Correlation between Niño3.4 Index and DMI for the 117-year period is significant and positive and the significance level is higher (lower) for the period with higher (lower) TC frequencies. One-third monthly interval analysis for the 117-year period indicates first third (1–10) of November as the most favoured period of TC formation over BoB. 117-year study period is divided into years of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and neutral ENSO) and IOD (+ve IOD, −ve IOD and no IOD) categories. Maximum frequency of TC is observed during La Niña years, −ve IOD years and also when La Niña co-occurred with −ve IOD. More severe cyclones are formed during La Niña and +ve IOD years. Genesis location of TCs indicates that during La Niña (El Niño) years, the TCs are oriented in the south-east–north-west (south-west–north-east) direction. TCs in no IOD and −ve (+ve) IOD years are more (less) in northern BoB (north of 15° N), while in southern BoB (south of 15° N), TCs are more (less) during no IOD and +ve (−ve) IOD condition. BoB is divided into four quadrants, and number of TCs in each quadrant is computed under different ENSO–IOD events. Peak direction of track movement is observed as north-east followed by north–north-west which is corroborated from the dissipation of TCs in the specific quadrant. Total TC tracks in the peak direction of track movement are maximum during El Niño and no IOD years. The study reveals that TCs with shorter lifetime are observed during El Niño and −ve IOD years, while TCs with longer lifetime are observed during La Niña, neutral ENSO and +ve IOD years. The decade with maximum TC formation is observed as 1921–1930, and the impacts of ENSO and IOD on decadal variability are distinctly observed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Biranchi Mahala & Birendra Nayak & Pratap Mohanty, 2015. "Impacts of ENSO and IOD on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1105-1125, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:2:p:1105-1125
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1360-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. U. Mohanty & K. Osuri & S. Pattanayak & P. Sinha, 2012. "An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(3), pages 1319-1335, September.
    2. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
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    1. Asif Iqbal & Syed Ahmad Hassan, 2018. "ENSO and IOD analysis on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 879-890, April.
    2. Pratap Kumar Mohanty & Prabin Kumar Kar & Balaji Behera, 2020. "Impact of very severe cyclonic storm Phailin on shoreline change along South Odisha Coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(2), pages 633-644, June.
    3. Brijesh Yadav & Lal Chand Malav & Shruti V. Singh & Sushil Kumar Kharia & Md. Yeasin & Ram Narayan Singh & Mahaveer Nogiya & Roshan Lal Meena & Pravash Chandra Moharana & Nirmal Kumar & Ram Prasad Sha, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Responses of Vegetation to Hydroclimatic Factors over Arid and Semi-arid Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-29, October.

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