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An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment

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  • U. Mohanty
  • K. Osuri
  • S. Pattanayak
  • P. Sinha

Abstract

The genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Indian seas comprising of Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) is highly seasonal with primary maximum in postmonsoon season (mid-September to December) and secondary maximum during premonsoon season (April and May). The present study is focused to demonstrate changes in genesis and intensity of TCs over Indian seas in warming environment. For this purpose, observational data of TCs, obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), are analyzed. The sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind speed, and potential evaporation factor (PEF), obtained from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), are also analyzed to examine the possible linkage with variations in TC activities over Indian seas. The study period has been divided into two epochs: past cooling period (PCP, period up to 1950) and current warming period (CWP, period after 1950) based on SST anomaly (became positive from 1950) over the BoB and AS. The study reveals that the number of severe cyclones (SCS) increases significantly (statistically significant at 99% confidence level) by about 41% during CWP though no such significant change is observed in cyclonic disturbances (CDs) and cyclones (CS) over Indian seas. It is also observed that the rate of dissipation of CS and SCS over Indian seas has been decreasing considerably by about 63 and 71%, respectively, during CWP. The analysis shows that the BoB contributes about 75% in each category of TCs and remaining 25% by the AS towards total of Indian seas. A detailed examination on genesis and intensity of TC over both the basins and the seasons illustrates that significant enhancement of SCS by about 65% during CWP is confined to the postmonsoon season of the BoB. Further, the BoB is sub-divided into northern, central, and southern sectors and the AS into western and eastern sectors based on genesis of TCs and SST gradient. Results show that in postmonsoon season during CWP, the number of SCS increases significantly by about 71% in southern BoB and 300% over western AS. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • U. Mohanty & K. Osuri & S. Pattanayak & P. Sinha, 2012. "An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(3), pages 1319-1335, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:63:y:2012:i:3:p:1319-1335
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9810-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
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    1. Biranchi Mahala & Birendra Nayak & Pratap Mohanty, 2015. "Impacts of ENSO and IOD on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1105-1125, January.
    2. Debashis Paul & Jagabandhu Panda & Ashish Routray, 2022. "Ocean and atmospheric characteristics associated with the cyclogenesis and rapid intensification of NIO super cyclonic storms during 1981–2020," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 261-289, October.

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