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Forecasting hurricane-induced power outage durations

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  • Roshanak Nateghi
  • Seth Guikema
  • Steven Quiring

Abstract

Accurate estimates of the duration of power outages caused by hurricanes prior to landfall are valuable for utility companies and government agencies that wish to plan and optimize their restoration efforts. Accurate pre-storm estimates are also important information for customers and operators of other infrastructures systems, who rely heavily on electricity. Traditionally, utilities make restoration plans based on managerial judgment and experience. However, skillful outage forecast models are conducive to improved decision-making practices by utilities and can greatly enhance storm preparation and restoration management procedures of power companies and emergency managers. This paper presents a novel statistical approach for estimating power outage durations that is 87 % more accurate than existing models in the literature. The power outage duration models are developed and carefully validated for outages caused by Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, and Ivan in a central Gulf Coast state. This paper identifies the key variables in predicting hurricane-induced outage durations and their degree of influence on predicting outage restoration for the utility company service area used as our case study. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Roshanak Nateghi & Seth Guikema & Steven Quiring, 2014. "Forecasting hurricane-induced power outage durations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1795-1811, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:3:p:1795-1811
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1270-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guikema, Seth D., 2009. "Natural disaster risk analysis for critical infrastructure systems: An approach based on statistical learning theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(4), pages 855-860.
    2. Steven Quiring & Laiyin Zhu & Seth Guikema, 2011. "Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling hurricane-induced power outages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 365-390, July.
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    1. Hou, Hui & Liu, Chao & Wei, Ruizeng & He, Huan & Wang, Lei & Li, Weibo, 2023. "Outage duration prediction under typhoon disaster with stacking ensemble learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Dunn, Laurel N. & Sohn, Michael D. & LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi & Eto, Joseph H., 2019. "Exploratory analysis of high-resolution power interruption data reveals spatial and temporal heterogeneity in electric grid reliability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 206-214.
    3. Dmitry Borisoglebsky & Liz Varga, 2019. "A Resilience Toolbox and Research Design for Black Sky Hazards to Power Grids," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, June.
    4. Mukherjee, Sayanti & Nateghi, Roshanak & Hastak, Makarand, 2018. "A multi-hazard approach to assess severe weather-induced major power outage risks in the U.S," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 283-305.
    5. Jin‐Hua Chen & Chun‐Shu Chen & Meng‐Fan Huang & Hung‐Chih Lin, 2016. "Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1855-1870, October.
    6. Rafal Ali & Ikramullah Khosa & Ammar Armghan & Jehangir Arshad & Sajjad Rabbani & Naif Alsharabi & Habib Hamam, 2022. "Financial Hazard Prediction Due to Power Outages Associated with Severe Weather-Related Natural Disaster Categories," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Kelsea Best & Siobhan Kerr & Allison Reilly & Anand Patwardhan & Deb Niemeier & Seth Guikema, 2023. "Spatial regression identifies socioeconomic inequality in multi-stage power outage recovery after Hurricane Isaac," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 851-873, May.
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    9. Jichao He & David W. Wanik & Brian M. Hartman & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou & Marina Astitha & Maria E. B. Frediani, 2017. "Nonparametric Tree‐Based Predictive Modeling of Storm Outages on an Electric Distribution Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 441-458, March.
    10. Wang, Chong & Ju, Ping & Wu, Feng & Lei, Shunbo & Pan, Xueping, 2021. "Sequential steady-state security region-based transmission power system resilience enhancement," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Ulaa AlHaddad & Abdullah Basuhail & Maher Khemakhem & Fathy Elbouraey Eassa & Kamal Jambi, 2023. "Towards Sustainable Energy Grids: A Machine Learning-Based Ensemble Methods Approach for Outages Estimation in Extreme Weather Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-19, August.
    12. Mehmet Baran Ulak & Ayberk Kocatepe & Lalitha Madhavi Konila Sriram & Eren Erman Ozguven & Reza Arghandeh, 2018. "Assessment of the hurricane-induced power outages from a demographic, socioeconomic, and transportation perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1489-1508, July.
    13. Reilly, Allison C. & Davidson, Rachel A. & Nozick, Linda K. & Chen, Thomas & Guikema, Seth D., 2016. "Using data envelopment analysis to evaluate the performance of post-hurricane electric power restoration activities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 197-204.
    14. Ikramullah Khosa & Naveed Taimoor & Jahanzeb Akhtar & Khurram Ali & Ateeq Ur Rehman & Mohit Bajaj & Mohamed Elgbaily & Mokhtar Shouran & Salah Kamel, 2022. "Financial Hazard Assessment for Electricity Suppliers Due to Power Outages: The Revenue Loss Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-24, June.
    15. Xu, Luo & Guo, Qinglai & Sheng, Yujie & Muyeen, S.M. & Sun, Hongbin, 2021. "On the resilience of modern power systems: A comprehensive review from the cyber-physical perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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