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Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part I: model development

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  • Ruirui Sun
  • Xiaoling Wang
  • Zhengyin Zhou
  • Xuefei Ao
  • Xiaopei Sun
  • Mingrui Song

Abstract

Dam-break floods have been of increasing concern to safety engineers and decision makers. The presence of complex terrain in inundation areas multiplies the simulation difficulty of flood routing. In previous studies, representing the flood routing parameters empirically does not reflect the characteristics of flood routing, which strongly influences the accurate assessment of the dam-break consequences. The basis for carrying out dangerous reservoir reinforcement is just engineering safety, without considering the actual situation of downstream areas. In this study, a comprehensive risk analysis of the dam-break flood was implemented based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. First, coupled with the volume of fluid method, a three-dimensional k–ɛ turbulence mathematical model was developed for flood routing in complex inundation areas. Then, based on the flow parameters obtained through computational fluid dynamics modeling, the attribute measure methodology was used for the evaluation of consequences combined with the calculation of the dam-break consequences (loss of life, economic loss, social and environmental influence). Furthermore, a methodology containing the combined weight method and the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution method was proposed for risk ranking of dangerous reservoirs due to its logical consideration of scalar values that simultaneously account for both the best and worst alternatives. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to provide information about the stability of risk ranking. The aforementioned model and methodology are applied to a case involving five reservoirs in the Haihe River Basin in China for Part II of this study. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Ruirui Sun & Xiaoling Wang & Zhengyin Zhou & Xuefei Ao & Xiaopei Sun & Mingrui Song, 2014. "Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part I: model development," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1547-1568, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:73:y:2014:i:3:p:1547-1568
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1154-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf & Alfred Kalyanapu & Eun-Sung Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Inundation Duration and Velocity on Selection of Flood Management Alternatives Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2543-2561, June.
    3. Ahmet Ozan Celik & Volkan Kiricci & Canberk Insel, 2017. "Reassessment of the flood damage at a river diversion hydropower plant site: lessons learned from a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 833-847, March.
    4. Chong-Xun Mo & Gui-Yan Mo & Liu Peng & Qing Yang & Xin-Rong Zhu & Qing-Ling Jiang & Ju-Liang Jin, 2019. "Quantitative Vulnerability Model of Earth Dam Overtopping and its Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1801-1815, March.
    5. Alireza Khoshkonesh & Blaise Nsom & Farhad Bahmanpouri & Fariba Ahmadi Dehrashid & Atefeh Adeli, 2021. "Numerical Study of the Dynamics and Structure of a Partial Dam-Break Flow Using the VOF Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1513-1528, March.
    6. Wei Ge & Zongkun Li & Wei Li & Meimei Wu & Juanjuan Li & Yipeng Pan, 2020. "Risk evaluation of dam-break environmental impacts based on the set pair analysis and cloud model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1641-1653, November.
    7. Rui Liu & Yun Chen & Jianping Wu & Lei Gao & Damian Barrett & Tingbao Xu & Xiaojuan Li & Linyi Li & Chang Huang & Jia Yu, 2017. "Integrating Entropy‐Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 756-773, April.
    8. Guanjie He & Junrui Chai & Yuan Qin & Zengguang Xu & Shouyi Li, 2020. "Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2677-2697, July.
    9. Alaa Ahmed & Guna Hewa & Abdullah Alrajhi, 2021. "Flood susceptibility mapping using a geomorphometric approach in South Australian basins," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 629-653, March.
    10. Xiaoling Wang & Wenlong Chen & Zhengyin Zhou & Yushan Zhu & Cheng Wang & Zhen Liu, 2017. "Three-dimensional flood routing of a dam break based on a high-precision digital model of a dense urban area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1147-1174, April.

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