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Predicting Loss of Life in Cases of Dam Failure and Flash Flood

Author

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  • Michael L. DeKay
  • Gary H. McClelland

Abstract

This paper improves upon previous attempts to predict loss of life (LOL) from severe flooding events. An expression for LOL in terms of warning time (WT), the size of the population at risk (PAR), and the forcefulness of the flood waters (Force) is derived from the historical record of dam failures and flash flood cases via logistic regression. There is no evidence for an effect of prior flooding experience or an interaction between WT and PAR, as has been suggested elsewhere. Guidelines are suggested for the proper use of the final equations and the findings are discussed in relation to a theoretical model of flood fatalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael L. DeKay & Gary H. McClelland, 1993. "Predicting Loss of Life in Cases of Dam Failure and Flash Flood," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 193-205, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:13:y:1993:i:2:p:193-205
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01069.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Dongjing Huang & Zhongbo Yu & Yiping Li & Dawei Han & Lili Zhao & Qi Chu, 2017. "Calculation method and application of loss of life caused by dam break in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 39-57, January.
    2. Chong-Xun Mo & Gui-Yan Mo & Liu Peng & Qing Yang & Xin-Rong Zhu & Qing-Ling Jiang & Ju-Liang Jin, 2019. "Quantitative Vulnerability Model of Earth Dam Overtopping and its Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1801-1815, March.
    3. M. Peng & L. Zhang, 2012. "Analysis of human risks due to dam break floods—part 2: application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1899-1923, November.
    4. Sherong Zhang & Yaosheng Tan, 2014. "Risk assessment of earth dam overtopping and its application research," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 717-736, November.
    5. Hao Gu & Xiao Fu & Yantao Zhu & Yijun Chen & Lixian Huang, 2020. "Analysis of Social and Environmental Impact of Earth-Rock Dam Breaks Based on a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, August.
    6. Xingbo Zhou & Zuyu Chen & Jianping Zhou & Xinlei Guo & Xiaohu Du & Qiang Zhang, 2020. "A quantitative risk analysis model for cascade reservoirs overtopping: principle and application," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 249-277, October.
    7. Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Bob Maaskant & Ezra Boyd & Marc Lloyd Levitan, 2009. "Loss of Life Caused by the Flooding of New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: Analysis of the Relationship Between Flood Characteristics and Mortality," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 676-698, May.
    8. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
    9. Ruirui Sun & Xiaoling Wang & Zhengyin Zhou & Xuefei Ao & Xiaopei Sun & Mingrui Song, 2014. "Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part I: model development," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1547-1568, September.

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