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Probabilistic assessment of tephra fallout hazard at Changbaishan volcano, Northeast China

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  • Hongmei Yu
  • Jiandong Xu
  • Peng Luan
  • Bo Zhao
  • Bo Pan

Abstract

Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by volcanic eruption, and is also one of the main hazards at Changbaishan volcano, Northeast China. Numerical simulation is an effective approach to assess the dispersion of tephra fallout. According to the theory of dispersion model, we developed a simple and practical diffusion program that can be run on a personal computer. The input parameters for the simulation of tephra fallout from the Millennium Eruption of Changbaishan volcano, such as the size, density and shape of the tephra, the bulk volume and column height, the diffusion parameter P(z), wind direction and intensity, were obtained by field investigation and laboratory analysis. The simulated results in the intermediate scope when the parameter β > 0.3 are in good agreement with the results from measurement in situ, indicating that the model is reliable and the parameters used in the model are reasonable. We carried out more than 20,000 tephra fallout simulations using a statistical dataset of wind profiles which are obtained from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (CMDSSS). Tephra fallout hazard probability maps related to high- and low- magnitude eruption scenarios in Changbaishan volcano, are constructed for several tephra thickness thresholds, such as 70, 20, 10 and 1 cm. The results from this study can give support to the risk mitigation plans in Changbaishan area. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Hongmei Yu & Jiandong Xu & Peng Luan & Bo Zhao & Bo Pan, 2013. "Probabilistic assessment of tephra fallout hazard at Changbaishan volcano, Northeast China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1369-1388, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:69:y:2013:i:3:p:1369-1388
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0683-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. Rhoades & D. Dowrick & C. Wilson, 2002. "Volcanic Hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and Attenuation Relations for Tephra fall deposits from Taupo Volcano," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 26(2), pages 147-174, June.
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    5. Sebastien Biass & Corine Frischknecht & Costanza Bonadonna, 2013. "A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 497-521, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qing Ma & Lina Han & Jiquan Zhang & Yichen Zhang & Qiuling Lang & Fengxu Li & Aru Han & Yongbin Bao & Kaiwei Li & Si Alu, 2019. "Environmental Risk Assessment of Metals in the Volcanic Soil of Changbai Mountain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-17, June.

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