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Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change

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  • Chi-Hsiang Wang
  • Xiaoming Wang
  • Yong Khoo

Abstract

For consideration of structural design of buildings and infrastructure in Australia, this paper presents hazard modelling and mapping of extreme wind gusts under the current climate and likely future climate change. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are applied to analyse the daily extreme wind gust data recorded between 1939 and 2007 at 545 anemometer stations around Australia. The estimated hazards are compared with the regional design wind speeds specified by the structural design standard, AS/NZS 1170.2:2011. Our results indicate that, under the current climate, structures in the areas on the west of and around Brisbane, Queensland and Newcastle, New South Wales, may be under higher gust hazard than they are designed for. Sensitivity study shows that these areas are also sensitive to the projected synoptic wind intensity changes. When subjected to ±20 % intensity change and ±50 % occurrence frequency change of tropical cyclones, the northwest coast of Western Australia, the northern part of Northern Territory, and the northeast coast between Cairns and Townsville, Queensland, will experience around ±10 m/s changes in extreme wind gust speeds of 500-year return period. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Chi-Hsiang Wang & Xiaoming Wang & Yong Khoo, 2013. "Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 549-567, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:549-567
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0582-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    2. Stéphane Goyette, 2008. "Development of a model-based high-resolution extreme surface wind climatology for Switzerland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(3), pages 329-339, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Moutassem Rafei & Steven Sherwood & Jason Evans & Andrew Dowdy, 2023. "Analysis and characterisation of extreme wind gust hazards in New South Wales, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 875-895, May.
    2. Chi-Hsiang Wang & John D. Holmes, 2020. "Exceedance rate, exceedance probability, and the duality of GEV and GPD for extreme hazard analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1305-1321, July.
    3. Ryan, Paraic C. & Stewart, Mark G. & Spencer, Nathan & Li, Yue, 2014. "Reliability assessment of power pole infrastructure incorporating deterioration and network maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 261-273.
    4. Alessio C. Spassiani & Matthew S. Mason & Vincent Y. S. Cheng, 2023. "An Australian convective wind gust climatology using Bayesian hierarchical modelling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2037-2067, September.
    5. Gunnell, Yanni & Mietton, Michel & Touré, Amadou Abdourhamane & Fujiki, Kenji, 2023. "Potential for wind farming in West Africa from an analysis of daily peak wind speeds and a review of low-level jet dynamics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Chi-Hsiang Wang & Yong Khoo & Xiaoming Wang, 2015. "Adaptation benefits and costs of raising coastal buildings under storm-tide inundation in South East Queensland, Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 545-558, October.
    7. L. Augusto Sanabria & Andrea F. Carril, 2018. "Maps of wind hazard over South Eastern South America considering climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 235-247, May.
    8. Mark Stewart, 2015. "Risk and economic viability of housing climate adaptation strategies for wind hazards in southeast Australia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 601-622, April.
    9. Paraic C. Ryan & Mark G. Stewart, 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of climate change adaptation for power pole networks," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 519-533, August.
    10. Kevin Walsh & Christopher J. White & Kathleen McInnes & John Holmes & Sandra Schuster & Harald Richter & Jason P. Evans & Alejandro Luca & Robert A. Warren, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: storms, wind and hail," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 55-67, November.

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