IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v148y2018i1d10.1007_s10584-018-2174-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Maps of wind hazard over South Eastern South America considering climate change

Author

Listed:
  • L. Augusto Sanabria

    (Universidad de Buenos Aires
    CONICET - Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA)
    CIMA)

  • Andrea F. Carril

    (Universidad de Buenos Aires
    CONICET - Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA)
    Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos (UMI 3351-IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-UBA))

Abstract

Wind is one of the most dangerous natural phenomena for the built environment in South Eastern South America. The hazard posed by wind depends on the extreme wind speeds on the surface and can be quantified by calculating the Average Recurrence Interval—more commonly known as return period—of these winds. Maps of return period of extreme wind speeds are used by planning authorities to enforce appropriate standards for infrastructure construction in most countries of the world. These maps are usually built up from wind speeds recorded at a network of weather stations. In some countries, however, the quality of the records is poor or the stations have not been in operation for long enough to give appropriate data for wind hazard studies. In this paper, we discuss an alternative approach based on wind speeds calculated by climate models. The approach provides longer datasets and facilitates assessment of the impact of climate change on wind hazard, a matter of great of importance for planning and emergency authorities. Map quality is evaluated by comparing results from the climate simulations with results from reanalysis. The comparison shows that the climate simulations produce results close enough to the reanalysis and hence they can be used for wind hazard assessment. The results also show that we could expect little variation in wind hazard in South Eastern South America during most of this century.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Augusto Sanabria & Andrea F. Carril, 2018. "Maps of wind hazard over South Eastern South America considering climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 235-247, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2174-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2174-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2174-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-018-2174-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gonzalo L. Pita & María L. A. Schwarzkopf, 2016. "Urban downburst vulnerability and damage assessment from a case study in Argentina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 445-463, August.
    2. Chi-Hsiang Wang & Xiaoming Wang & Yong Khoo, 2013. "Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 549-567, June.
    3. Simon Watson, 2014. "Quantifying the variability of wind energy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 330-342, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moutassem Rafei & Steven Sherwood & Jason Evans & Andrew Dowdy, 2023. "Analysis and characterisation of extreme wind gust hazards in New South Wales, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 875-895, May.
    2. Reichenberg, Lina & Hedenus, Fredrik & Mattsson, Niclas & Verendel, Vilhelm, 2022. "Deep decarbonization and the supergrid – Prospects for electricity transmission between Europe and China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    3. Ryan, Paraic C. & Stewart, Mark G. & Spencer, Nathan & Li, Yue, 2014. "Reliability assessment of power pole infrastructure incorporating deterioration and network maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 261-273.
    4. Kevin Walsh & Christopher J. White & Kathleen McInnes & John Holmes & Sandra Schuster & Harald Richter & Jason P. Evans & Alejandro Luca & Robert A. Warren, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: storms, wind and hail," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 55-67, November.
    5. Chi-Hsiang Wang & John D. Holmes, 2020. "Exceedance rate, exceedance probability, and the duality of GEV and GPD for extreme hazard analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1305-1321, July.
    6. Chi-Hsiang Wang & Yong Khoo & Xiaoming Wang, 2015. "Adaptation benefits and costs of raising coastal buildings under storm-tide inundation in South East Queensland, Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 545-558, October.
    7. Alessio C. Spassiani & Matthew S. Mason & Vincent Y. S. Cheng, 2023. "An Australian convective wind gust climatology using Bayesian hierarchical modelling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2037-2067, September.
    8. Paraic C. Ryan & Mark G. Stewart, 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of climate change adaptation for power pole networks," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 519-533, August.
    9. Engeland, Kolbjørn & Borga, Marco & Creutin, Jean-Dominique & François, Baptiste & Ramos, Maria-Helena & Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "Space-time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewable electricity production – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 600-617.
    10. Almoghayer, Mohammed A. & Woolf, David K. & Kerr, Sandy & Davies, Gareth, 2022. "Integration of tidal energy into an island energy system – A case study of Orkney islands," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    11. José V. P. Miguel & Eliane A. Fadigas & Ildo L. Sauer, 2019. "The Influence of the Wind Measurement Campaign Duration on a Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP)-Based Wind Resource Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    12. Mark Stewart, 2015. "Risk and economic viability of housing climate adaptation strategies for wind hazards in southeast Australia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 601-622, April.
    13. Javier Sanz Rodrigo & Roberto Aurelio Chávez Arroyo & Patrick Moriarty & Matthew Churchfield & Branko Kosović & Pierre‐Elouan Réthoré & Kurt Schaldemose Hansen & Andrea Hahmann & Jeffrey D. Mirocha & , 2017. "Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), March.
    14. Xing Wang & Jianhong Wang & Chunsheng Miao & Kang Zeng, 2020. "Forewarning method of downburst based on feature recognition and extrapolation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 903-921, August.
    15. Monforti, F. & Gaetani, M. & Vignati, E., 2016. "How synchronous is wind energy production among European countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1622-1638.
    16. Lund, Peter D. & Lindgren, Juuso & Mikkola, Jani & Salpakari, Jyri, 2015. "Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 785-807.
    17. Gunnell, Yanni & Mietton, Michel & Touré, Amadou Abdourhamane & Fujiki, Kenji, 2023. "Potential for wind farming in West Africa from an analysis of daily peak wind speeds and a review of low-level jet dynamics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2174-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.