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Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions

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  • Gordon Woo

Abstract

One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass evacuation is high, yet the cost in possible human casualties is potentially much greater if an evacuation is not called, or is called late. To assist officials in weighing these considerations, probabilistic criteria for evacuation decision-making are developed within a cost-benefit analysis framework. It is shown that such criteria may be quantitatively expressed in terms of the proportion of the evacuees owing their lives to the evacuation call. The underlying principles are illustrated with some case studies where eruption probabilities have been estimated. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon Woo, 2008. "Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 45(1), pages 87-97, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:45:y:2008:i:1:p:87-97
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-007-9171-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    2. Jewson,Stephen & Brix,Anders, 2005. "Weather Derivative Valuation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843713, September.
    3. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. Rosa Sobradelo & Joan Martí & Christopher Kilburn & Carmen López, 2015. "Probabilistic approach to decision-making under uncertainty during volcanic crises: retrospective application to the El Hierro (Spain) 2011 volcanic crisis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 979-998, March.
    2. Emily Wilkinson & Emma Lovell & Barbara Carby & Jenni Barclay & Richard E.A. Robertson, 2016. "The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-20, June.
    3. José Marrero & Alicia García & Angeles Llinares & Servando Cruz-Reyna & Silvia Ramos & Ramón Ortiz, 2013. "Virtual tools for volcanic crisis management, and evacuation decision support: applications to El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 955-980, September.
    4. Miguel A. Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia & Karina Hernández-Urbina & Silvia G. Ramos-Hernández, 2021. "Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 1011-1035, March.

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