Storm-induced marine flooding on Morocco’s Atlantic Coast — case of El Jadida Bay

Coastal regions are often exposed to marine floods, usually generated by storm surge events. Each year, they are responsible for major losses in terms of lives and economic infrastructures. Numerical models are crucial to understand, assess, and forecast these consequences, especially in the absence of direct observations of these hazardous events. The present study evaluates the impact of the two storms of January 7, 2014, and February 28, 2017, on the coast of El Jadida (Morocco), using Iber software on a high-resolution topo-bathymetric digital elevation model with wind, wave and tide as forcing parameters. It also predicts the effect of the same storms under future sea level rise projections for 2050 and 2100 under the RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The simulations reveal a total flood area (TFA) of 1.1 and 1.3 km2 for the storms of 2014 and 2017, respectively. The maximum run-up was equal to 6.4 m, as a result of the 2017 storm. The impact of storms similar to the 2017 event will be more dangerous for the coast of El Jadida under future sea level rise. For the RCP 2.6 (optimistic scenario), the TFA will reach 1.7 km2 associated with a run-up of 7.6 m in 2100. For the same period, the TFA and run-up under the RCP 8.5 scenario (pessimistic) are equal to 2 km2 and 7.7 m, respectively. The obtained flood hazard maps show that several economic infrastructures, such as commercial parks, hotels and coffee shops are located in areas at risk of coastal inundation. These results underscore the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate future flooding risks along the coast of El Jadida.