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Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities

Author

Listed:
  • Liang Ma

    (Princeton University
    Shenzhen Campus of SunYat-sen University)

  • Shannon R. Conradie

    (South African National Biodiversity Institute
    Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria)

  • Christopher L. Crawford

    (Princeton University)

  • Alexandra S. Gardner

    (University of Exeter Penryn Campus)

  • Michael R. Kearney

    (The University of Melbourne)

  • Ilya M. D. Maclean

    (University of Exeter Penryn Campus)

  • Andrew E. McKechnie

    (South African National Biodiversity Institute
    Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria)

  • Chun-Rong Mi

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Rebecca A. Senior

    (Princeton University
    Durham University)

  • David S. Wilcove

    (Princeton University
    Princeton University)

Abstract

The world’s warm deserts are predicted to experience disproportionately large temperature increases due to climate change, yet the impacts on global desert biodiversity remain poorly understood. Because species in warm deserts live close to their physiological limits, additional warming may induce local extinctions. Here, we combine climate change projections with biophysical models and species distributions to predict physiological impacts of climate change on desert birds globally. Our results show heterogeneous impacts between and within warm deserts. Moreover, spatial patterns of physiological impacts do not simply mirror air temperature changes. Climate change refugia, defined as warm desert areas with high avian diversity and low predicted physiological impacts, are predicted to persist in varying extents in different desert realms. Only a small proportion (

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Ma & Shannon R. Conradie & Christopher L. Crawford & Alexandra S. Gardner & Michael R. Kearney & Ilya M. D. Maclean & Andrew E. McKechnie & Chun-Rong Mi & Rebecca A. Senior & David S. Wilcove, 2023. "Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-35814-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-35814-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yue Qin & John T. Abatzoglou & Stefan Siebert & Laurie S. Huning & Amir AghaKouchak & Justin S. Mankin & Chaopeng Hong & Dan Tong & Steven J. Davis & Nathaniel D. Mueller, 2020. "Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(5), pages 459-465, May.
    2. Jochen Hinkel & Carlo Jaeger & Robert J. Nicholls & Jason Lowe & Ortwin Renn & Shi Peijun, 2015. "Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 188-190, March.
    3. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
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