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Estimating the functional impacts associated with rainfall-induced hazards for Chinese railway system: fragility, risk and its uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Weihua Zhu

    (Ministry of Transport
    Laboratory of Transport Safety and Emergency Technology)

  • Kai Liu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Shoudong Wang

    (Ministry of Transport
    Laboratory of Transport Safety and Emergency Technology)

  • Ming Wang

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Shengli Liu

    (Ministry of Transport
    Laboratory of Transport Safety and Emergency Technology)

Abstract

Rainfall-induced landslides, debris flows, and floods pose great risks to the operating service of the Chinese railway system. Evaluating their functional impact is crucial for guiding risk reduction action. Here, we generate an initial set of regional service fragility models and estimate the service risk of the Chinese railway system associated with rainfall-induced hazards. The results reveal noticeable regional differences in service fragility across China. Railways in northern China and western China are highly vulnerable to rainfall-induced hazards, while railways in southern and eastern China are robust. Nationally, 279,000 trains are expected to be affected annually, accounting for 6.45% of the total trains; ~80% of these incidences occur in May-September. In addition, the national railway lines prone to hazards are geographically widespread, especially in Southwest China and Southern China. Railway links such as Wuhan-Guangzhou, Guizhou-Guangzhou and the lines along the southeast coast exhibit higher risk due to their higher failure probabilities and higher train trip flow. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis suggests that fragility models produce high uncertainty for service risk, which justifies the significance of generating detailed regional fragility models. The fragility models and risk maps produced in this paper can be used as an essential step in enhancing the resilience of the railway transport system and provide a data basis and theoretical basis for safe railway operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Weihua Zhu & Kai Liu & Shoudong Wang & Ming Wang & Shengli Liu, 2024. "Estimating the functional impacts associated with rainfall-induced hazards for Chinese railway system: fragility, risk and its uncertainty," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(11), pages 9585-9607, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06578-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06578-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boakye, Jessica & Guidotti, Roberto & Gardoni, Paolo & Murphy, Colleen, 2022. "The role of transportation infrastructure on the impact of natural hazards on communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Rob Lamb & Paige Garside & Raghav Pant & Jim W. Hall, 2019. "A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2457-2478, November.
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