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Cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Arefinia

    (University of Tehran)

  • Omid Bozorg-Haddad

    (University of Tehran)

  • Khaled Ahmadaali

    (University of Tehran)

  • Babak Zolghadr-Asli

    (Sustainable Minerals Institute, The University of Queensland
    The University of Exeter)

  • Hugo A. Loáiciga

    (University of California)

Abstract

This paper presents a multipurpose optimization algorithm (MOA) to optimize crop patterns under climate change, minimizing water use and maximizing crop revenue while enforcing food security and regional water security constraints. An application of the MOA yields a total of 12 Pareto fronts for 20-year horizons centered on 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, each of which is associated with specific land use conditions. The results show that crop production must increase due to population growth. However, climate projections for the study region in eastern Iran indicate unsuitable conditions to support the incremental production. This paper's optimization results show that 89%, 73%, and 48% of optimal crop production are achievable considering food-safety constraints in 20-year periods centered on 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. This paper’s results indicate that revenue would increase, water use would decline, and environmental sustainability would be reached in the study area under the optimized cropping patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Arefinia & Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Khaled Ahmadaali & Babak Zolghadr-Asli & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2022. "Cropping patterns based on virtual water content considering water and food security under climate change conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1709-1721, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05443-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05443-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiaoling Su & Jianfang Li & Vijay Singh, 2014. "Optimal Allocation of Agricultural Water Resources Based on Virtual Water Subdivision in Shiyang River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2243-2257, June.
    2. Peter Lawrence & Jeremy Meigh & Caroline Sullivan, 2002. "The Water Poverty Index:an International Comparison," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2002/19, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University, revised Mar 2003.
    3. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
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