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Hypothetical failure of the Khassa Chai dam and flood risk analysis for Kirkuk, Iraq

Author

Listed:
  • Kawa Z. Abdulrahman

    (University of Sulaimani
    University of Nevada)

  • Mariwan R. Faris

    (University of Kirkuk
    University of Nevada)

  • Hekmat M. Ibrahim

    (University of Sulaimani
    University of Nevada)

  • Omed S. Q. Yousif

    (University of Sulaimani
    University of Nevada)

  • Alan Abubaker Ghafoor

    (University of Sulaimani
    University of Nevada)

  • Luqman S. Othman

    (University of Halabja
    University of Nevada)

  • Moses Karakouzian

    (University of Halabja
    University of Nevada)

Abstract

Many of Iraqi's high-hazard dams lack an Emergency Action Plan, which should include a flood inundation map to show which downstream areas would be flooded if the dams were to fail. This article presents the results of the simulation of a hypothetical 2D dam break for the 58 m high Khassa Chai dam in Kirkuk, Iraq, using HEC-RAS 2D 5.0.7 software. The Khassa Chai dam is situated 7.4 km north of Kirkuk. The simulations revealed that the dam-break flood will affect eight major bridges and the majority of Kirkuk city's metropolitan neighborhoods. Within an hour, the floodwaters will reach the city's center. The flood hazard map revealed that if the Khassa Chai dam fails, many people, vehicles, and structures will be at danger. The findings of this paper can be used to identify evacuation routes and refuge sites as well as build suitable warning systems in order to limit the risk for fatalities if the Khassa Chai dam fails. Moreover, as the effect of modeling bridges downstream of failed dams has not been explored yet, to the knowledge of the authors, eight bridges have been modeled. It was concluded that ignoring bridges in such a large dam break model will not affect the results significantly, which saves the time of data collection and model development.

Suggested Citation

  • Kawa Z. Abdulrahman & Mariwan R. Faris & Hekmat M. Ibrahim & Omed S. Q. Yousif & Alan Abubaker Ghafoor & Luqman S. Othman & Moses Karakouzian, 2022. "Hypothetical failure of the Khassa Chai dam and flood risk analysis for Kirkuk, Iraq," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(3), pages 1833-1851, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:113:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05371-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05371-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Massimiliano Cannata & Roberto Marzocchi, 2012. "Two-dimensional dam break flooding simulation: a GIS-embedded approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1143-1159, April.
    2. Denghua Zhong & Yuefeng Sun & Mingchao Li, 2011. "Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(1), pages 129-147, October.
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