IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v105y2021i3d10.1007_s11069-020-04431-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

High-intensity monsoon rainfall variability and its attributes: a case study for Upper Ganges Catchment in the Indian Himalaya during 1901–2013

Author

Listed:
  • Alok Bhardwaj

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Robert J. Wasson

    (James Cook University
    Australian National University, ACT)

  • Winston T. L. Chow

    (Singapore Management University)

  • Alan D. Ziegler

    (Mae Joe University)

Abstract

High-intensity monsoon rainfall in the Indian Himalaya generates multiple environmental hazards. This study examines the variability in long-term trends (1901–2013) in the intensity and frequency of high-intensity monsoon rainfall events of varying depths (high, very high and extreme) in the Upper Ganges Catchment in the Indian Himalaya. Using trend analysis on the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall dataset, we find statistically significant positive trends in all categories of monsoon rainfall intensity and frequency over the 113-year period. The majority of the trends for both intensity and frequency are spatially located in the Higher Himalayan region encompassing upstream sections of the Mandakini, Alaknanda and Bhagirathi River systems. The extreme rainfall trends for both intensity and frequency are found to be only located in the vicinity of the upstream section of the Mandakini Catchment. Further, we explored the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) climate system and the frequency of occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events. Results indicate that AO is more likely to influence the occurrence of extreme monsoon events when it has a higher magnitude of negative AO phase. This study will help in better understanding of the influence of climate change at higher latitudes on mid-latitude rainfall extremes, particularly in the Himalayas. The implications of the findings are that statistically significant increasing rainfall depths and frequency in the Higher Himalayan region support the notion of higher frequency of rainfall-induced hazards in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Alok Bhardwaj & Robert J. Wasson & Winston T. L. Chow & Alan D. Ziegler, 2021. "High-intensity monsoon rainfall variability and its attributes: a case study for Upper Ganges Catchment in the Indian Himalaya during 1901–2013," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2907-2936, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04431-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04431-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04431-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04431-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Subimal Ghosh & Debasish Das & Shih-Chieh Kao & Auroop R. Ganguly, 2012. "Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 86-91, February.
    2. Niklas Boers & Bedartha Goswami & Aljoscha Rheinwalt & Bodo Bookhagen & Brian Hoskins & Jürgen Kurths, 2019. "Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7744), pages 373-377, February.
    3. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    4. D. Coumou & G. Di Capua & S. Vavrus & L. Wang & S. Wang, 2018. "The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Midhuna Thayyil Mandodi & D. R. Pattanaik, 2023. "The dependence of Indian winter precipitation extreme on the North Atlantic Oscillation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1869-1885, June.
    2. Miao Fang & Xin Li & Hans W. Chen & Deliang Chen, 2022. "Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    4. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    5. Hüseyin Yavuz & Saffet Erdoğan, 2012. "Spatial Analysis of Monthly and Annual Precipitation Trends in Turkey," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(3), pages 609-621, February.
    6. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    7. Kaiwen Li & Ming Wang & Kai Liu, 2021. "The Study on Compound Drought and Heatwave Events in China Using Complex Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-15, November.
    8. Wan-Jiun Chen, 2017. "Is the Green Solow Model Valid for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions in the European Union?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 23-45, May.
    9. Leto Peel & Tiago P. Peixoto & Manlio De Domenico, 2022. "Statistical inference links data and theory in network science," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Nico Wunderling & Frederik Wolf & Obbe A. Tuinenburg & Arie Staal, 2022. "Network motifs shape distinct functioning of Earth’s moisture recycling hubs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    11. Roquia Salam & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Shakibul Islam, 2020. "Spatiotemporal distribution and prediction of groundwater level linked to ENSO teleconnection indices in the northwestern region of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 4509-4535, June.
    12. Hu, Yuntong & Xiao, Fuyuan, 2022. "A novel method for forecasting time series based on directed visibility graph and improved random walk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 594(C).
    13. Myoung-Jin Um & Jun-Haeng Heo & Momcilo Markus & Donald J. Wuebbles, 2018. "Performance Evaluation of four Statistical Tests for Trend and Non-stationarity and Assessment of Observed and Projected Annual Maximum Precipitation Series in Major United States Cities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 913-933, February.
    14. Ayllón, Daniel & Railsback, Steven F. & Vincenzi, Simone & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Almodóvar, Ana & Grimm, Volker, 2016. "InSTREAM-Gen: Modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics of trout populations under anthropogenic environmental change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 36-53.
    15. Milan Stojković & Srđan Kostić & Stevan Prohaska & Jasna Plavšić & Vesna Tripković, 2017. "A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1089-1103, March.
    16. Anas Mahmood Al-Juboori, 2019. "Generating Monthly Stream Flow Using Nearest River Data: Assessing Different Trees Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(9), pages 3257-3270, July.
    17. Farahani Mohd Saimi & Firdaus Mohamad Hamzah & Mohd Ekhwan Toriman & Othman Jaafar & Hazrina Tajudin, 2020. "Trend and Linearity Analysis of Meteorological Parameters in Peninsular Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-19, November.
    18. Mojtaba Shadmani & Safar Marofi & Majid Roknian, 2012. "Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 211-224, January.
    19. Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Susanne Rolinski & Anne Biewald & Isabelle Weindl & Alexander Popp & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2015. "Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-27, November.
    20. Vimal Mishra & Reepal Shah & Amit Garg, 2016. "Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh: Indicators, Impacts and Adaptation," Working Papers id:10844, eSocialSciences.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04431-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.