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Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California

Author

Listed:
  • Jeff Peters

    (United States Geological Survey)

  • Nathan Wood

    (United States Geological Survey)

  • Rick Wilson

    (California Geological Survey)

  • Kevin Miller

    (California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services)

Abstract

Tsunami-evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically based on maximum evacuation zones for a single scenario or a composite of sources; however, this approach may over-evacuate a community and overly disrupt the local economy and strain emergency-service resources. To minimize the potential for future over-evacuations, multiple evacuation zones based on arrival time and inundation extent are being developed for California coastal communities. We use the coastal city of Alameda, California (USA), as a case study to explore population and evacuation implications associated with multiple tsunami-evacuation zones. We use geospatial analyses to estimate the number and type of people in each tsunami-evacuation zone and anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to estimate pedestrian travel time out of each zone. Results demonstrate that there are tens of thousands of individuals in tsunami-evacuation zones on the two main islands of Alameda, but they will likely have sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Quality of life could be impacted by the high number of government offices, schools, day-care centers, and medical offices in certain evacuation zones and by potentially high population density at one identified safe area after an evacuation. Multi-jurisdictional evacuation planning may be warranted, given that many at-risk individuals may need to evacuate to neighboring jurisdictions. The use of maximum evacuation zones for local tsunami sources may be warranted given the limited amount of available time to confidently recommend smaller zones which would result in fewer evacuees; however, this approach may also result in over-evacuation and the incorrect perception that successful evacuations are unlikely.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Peters & Nathan Wood & Rick Wilson & Kevin Miller, 2016. "Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 975-995, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:84:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2469-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2469-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George Priest & Laura Stimely & Nathan Wood & Ian Madin & Rudie Watzig, 2016. "Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1031-1056, January.
    2. George R. Priest & Laura L. Stimely & Nathan J. Wood & Ian P. Madin & Rudie J. Watzig, 2016. "Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1031-1056, January.
    3. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein, 2012. "Anisotropic path modeling to assess pedestrian-evacuation potential from Cascadia-related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 275-300, June.
    4. Eddie Bernard, 2005. "The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: A Successful State–Federal Partnership," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 35(1), pages 5-24, May.
    5. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
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