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Palaeoflood discharge estimation using dendrogeomorphic methods, rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling—a case study from southern Crete

Author

Listed:
  • Stanislav Ruman

    (University of Ostrava)

  • Radek Tichavský

    (University of Ostrava)

  • Karel Šilhán

    (University of Ostrava)

  • Manolis G. Grillakis

    (Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas)

Abstract

This study represents the first palaeoflood discharge estimation using dendrogeomorphic evidence from two ungauged catchments in southern Crete. Dendrogeomorphological methods, rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling were applied to estimate the palaeoflood discharge of the 2000 flood event. We developed two scenarios (QHydraulic, QRR) of peak discharges in the short reaches of the Ilingas and Sfakia catchments. Scenario QRR was based on the results of the uncalibrated rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS. The calculated discharges were equal to 35.9 m3 s−1 in the Ilingas reach and 7.6 m3 s−1 in the Sfakia reach. The second scenario, QHydraulic was based on the output of the two-dimensional hydraulic model IBER, which was calibrated using six palaeostage indicators obtained during a field survey. The reconstructed discharge for the QHydraulic scenario was equal to 26.3 m3 s−1 in Ilingas and 11.2 m3 s−1 in Sfakia. Deviation (26.7% in Ilingas and 32.1% in Sfakia) between the scenarios were attributed mainly to the uncertainties of in flood reconstruction using the palaeostage indicators and uncalibrated rainfall-runoff model. We further investigated uncertainty in Manning’s roughness coefficient, which caused deviations in peak discharges with the range of these deviations defined within ± 40% in the Ilingas reach and ± 36% in the Sfakia reach.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav Ruman & Radek Tichavský & Karel Šilhán & Manolis G. Grillakis, 2021. "Palaeoflood discharge estimation using dendrogeomorphic methods, rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling—a case study from southern Crete," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1721-1742, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04373-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04373-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. Gholami & M. Ahmadi Jolandan & J. Torkaman, 2017. "Evaluation of climate change in northern Iran during the last four centuries by using dendroclimatology," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1835-1850, February.
    2. Nigel Arnell & Simon Gosling, 2016. "The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 387-401, February.
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