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Evaluation of climate change in northern Iran during the last four centuries by using dendroclimatology

Author

Listed:
  • V. Gholami

    (University of Guilan)

  • M. Ahmadi Jolandan

    (Tarbiat Modares University)

  • J. Torkaman

    (University of Guilan)

Abstract

Climate change is currently one of the most important environmental issues. Dendrochronology is frequently used to identify the climatic changes most closely associated with changes in tree-ring extent. We applied dendroclimatology to determine the climate changes in the Roodbar region of Iran during the last four centuries. The climatic index of De Martonne (aridity index), annual precipitation, and annual mean temperature were simulated by using dendroclimatology (tree-rings) and an artificial neural network (ANN). Dendroclimatology studies were carried out with the use of the Cupressus sempervirens species. A multilayer perceptron network was adopted for the ANN. Tree-ring width was the input variable for the simulation, whereas annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and the aridity index were the outputs. After the training process, the network was validated. The validated network and tree-rings were used to simulate changes in climatic factors during the last four centuries. The climatic factors simulated by using dendroclimatology can be used in drought studies and climate change evaluation. The results showed that in the last four centuries, the climate of the study area changed from semiarid to arid, and its annual precipitation decreased significantly. The significant changes in climate were found to occur in the mid-twentieth century.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Gholami & M. Ahmadi Jolandan & J. Torkaman, 2017. "Evaluation of climate change in northern Iran during the last four centuries by using dendroclimatology," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1835-1850, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:85:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2667-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2667-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. K. R. Briffa & F. H. Schweingruber & P. D. Jones & T. J. Osborn & S. G. Shiyatov & E. A. Vaganov, 1998. "Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes," Nature, Nature, vol. 391(6668), pages 678-682, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Reza KHALEGHI, 2018. "Application of dendroclimatology in evaluation of climatic changes," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(3), pages 139-147.
    2. Mohammad Darand & Farshad Pazhoh, 2022. "Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation concentration over Iran during 1962–2019," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Stanislav Ruman & Radek Tichavský & Karel Šilhán & Manolis G. Grillakis, 2021. "Palaeoflood discharge estimation using dendrogeomorphic methods, rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling—a case study from southern Crete," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1721-1742, January.
    4. Mohammad Reza KHALEGHI, 2017. "The influence of deforestation and anthropogenic activities on runoff generation," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(6), pages 245-253.

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