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An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones

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  • Russell H. Glazer

    (Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics)

  • M. M. Ali

    (Florida State University
    AP Disaster Management Authority)

Abstract

The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the most dangerous tropical cyclone (TC) region to humans in the world due to a combination of geographical and environmental factors. TC potential intensity (PI) estimates are a useful forecasting tool for evaluating favorable thermodynamic conditions for TC intensification; however, it assumes an idealized environment which omits several TC–environmental interactions. The present study compares the PI calculated using the SST (SST-PI) and the PI calculated taking into account ocean surface cooling and vertical wind shear (Environmental-PI) to the intensification rates of BoB TCs. A significant improvement is found in terms of explained variance when using Env-PI (13.5%) rather than SST-PI (3.5%). For slower moving TCs, the improvement is larger between Env-PI (25.5%) and SST-PI (4.9%). This study demonstrates that including an estimate of both oceanic and dynamical TC interactions in PI estimates lead to an improved estimate of future TC intensification in the BoB.

Suggested Citation

  • Russell H. Glazer & M. M. Ali, 2020. "An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2635-2644, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04289-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04289-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerry A. Emanuel, 1999. "Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6754), pages 665-669, October.
    2. Kerry Emanuel, 2017. "A fast intensity simulator for tropical cyclone risk analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 779-796, September.
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